Seriouser and Seriouser

18 July 2014

Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Malaysian Airliner Shot Down over Rebel-Held Ukraine

Russia's stealth war against Ukraine took an evil turn yesterday when a Malaysian Airlines 777 en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was shot down by a surface-to-air missile. The evidence proves almost to metaphysical certitude that the Russian-backed agitators of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts pulled the trigger, mistakenly. Now that non-Russians and non-Ukrainians are dying, there is a new dimension to this conflict. This gives everyone a chance to step back from the brink, but one doubts that such wisdom will prevail.

Perhaps the most telling datum in establishing responsibility (or fixing blame if one prefers) is the Kremlin's line. According to the Putinistas, since the plane was shot down over Ukraine, the responsibility lies with Kyiv. Given that the territory is not under control of Kyiv, this just doesn't pass the smell test. That said, what is even more compelling is the fact that this very weak reed forms the basis of Moscow's response. If Russia had something stronger, it would use that argument.

The Financial Times reports "in a posting on a Russian social networking site that was later taken down, Igor Strelkov, a rebel military commander, boasted on Thursday afternoon of downing what he said was a Ukrainian military An-26 transport aircraft. He said the rebels had 'warned them not to fly into 'our sky'. It could not be immediately established if the posting was genuine. Russia's Ria-Novosti agency also reported rebels had shot down an An-26 near Torez."

The paper also said "Ukraine's security service later released wiretaps also pointing to potential rebel involvement. The recordings featured what appeared to be separatist fighters reporting to commanders the downing of what they thought was a military aircraft, but turned out to be civilian." The words included the Russian vernacular term that in English one would render as "fuck up."

The agitator militias have stated that international investigators can visit the site, that they will be able to recover the bodies and that the area will be safe. That is the bare minimum one should have expected. What would be ideal, and what may not happen, is for the investigators to leave the region in possession of the plane's black box data recorders. Instead, the two recorders will likely wind up in Russia for examination. Even if Russia handles the recorders with total transparency and honesty (which in Mr. Putin's Russia is a supposition somewhere between science fiction and out fantasy), Russia is too intricately involved for an investigation there to be accepted by the international community.

Najib Razak, Malaysian prime minister, said, "If it transpires that the plane was indeed shot down we insist that the perpetrators must swiftly be brought to justice." That isn't going to happen short of a Malaysian Expeditionary Force hunting them down. However, Mr. Razak's government has incredible moral standing here to demand a de-escalation of the conflict. As most of the dead were Dutch citizens, the Netherlands could also insist on an end to the fighting -- but as an EU state, it will be seen as pro-Kyiv by Russian nationalists.

Malaysia can insist on international monitoring of the airspace, an international investigation outside Russia, trade sanctions, and a wide variety of other measures that will protect non-combatants. Almost inevitably, these measures will make the fighting between the two sides more difficult, which is a start on the road to peace.

This war will only end through exhaustion of both sides. Mr. Putin will only stop when Ukraine is so crippled and dysfunctional that it poses no threat to his ambitions. Kyiv will not yield to that readily. But the loss of this airliner gives outsides leverage to limit the carnage.

© Copyright 2014 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



Kensington Review Home

Google

Follow KensingtonReview on Twitter