Is It Enough?

26 August 2014

Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

"Yes" Wins Second Scottish Independence TV Debate

Last night, almost 2 million Scots watched a debate between the two camps arguing over whether Scotland should be an independent nation. The general consensus is that Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Nationalists, carried the day over Alistair Darling, Scottish Labour MP, former Chancellor of the Exchequer and leader of the "Better Together" campaign. Some analysts suggest that Mr. Salmond's victory stemmed from the format. This journal believes he has taken a better strategic approach. Yet the real question remains, does the "Yes" camp have enough time and energy to make the argument to the voters?

The Scotsman noted, "Last night's programme began with questions from the audience, rather than leaving them until after the leaders cross-examined each other. This change of order favoured Mr Salmond. In the first debate he was undone by Mr Darling's persistence on the currency issue during the cross-examination. By the time questions from the audience came around his opportunity to woo the audience had already been lost. This time, the First Minister was able to impress his more relaxed personality on the proceedings from the beginning, standing aside from the lectern and addressing his questioners directly. Mr Darling remained firmly stuck behind his lectern."

As a matter of fact, Mr. Salmond is a much more personable individual than Mr. Darling, who isn't quite the stereotypical dour Scot but who leans in that direction. Personalities do matter in this kind of debate. One isn't trying to carry the day intellectually as one might in an American high school debate but rather one is trying to get the potential voter invested in a point of view. The salesman himself does matter.

However, the strategic difference is telling. The "Yes" campaign has basically adopted the view that a divorce is necessary. They argue that Scotland needs to go its own way, to find its future, to grow as a nation. It sounds like the partner in a marriage who wants out. Meanwhile, the "No" crowd has nitpicked over things like what currency would an independent Scotland use, and would Elizabeth II still be Queen of Scotland. To continue with the troubled marriage simile, the "Yes" campaign wants a fresh chapter in Scotland's national life and the "No" campaign wants to know who will look after the cat, who gets the good car and what will the neighbors think? The unionists clearly have an issue with the "vision thing."

As a result of strategy or format or both or neither, a poll taken immediately after the debate by the Guardian gave the debate to Mr. Salmond -- 71% of viewers said he won. This is an improvement over the first debate, which went to Mr. Darling by a 56% to 44% result. Naturally, the nationalists claimed that the momentum was going their way. Meanwhile, the unionists harped on currencies and other details.

However, Labour's shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander told the BBC's "Good Morning Scotland" program "I think there's a difference between performing and persuading. If these debates determined the outcome of elections in terms of performance, I expect Nick Clegg would be prime minister this morning." And that, of course, is the point entirely. Just ask President Al Gore.

Scots vote on September 18, 23 days from today. Most voters have made up their minds. It's now down to marching them to the ballot box. Registration ends this week, and postal ballots should be in the hands of the voters by Thursday. The ground game is what will make a difference here. Get-out-the-vote efforts are now just about all that matters. What it comes down to is whether the Scottish National Party has a better organization than the combined Tory, Labour, Liberal Democratic Parties. And of course, it depends on just how solid those unionist parties' voters are for the union.

© Copyright 2014 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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