Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Tory MP Switches to UKIP

The Honourable Douglas Carswell, MP, has left the Conservative Party to join the UK Independence Party. He explained the move by saying that he doesn't believe that Prime Minister David Cameron is "serious about the change we need" in Europe. He has resigned his seat and will fight the coming by-election to become the first elected UKIP MP. He might not be the only one to make the switch.

Mr. Carswell stated "This hasn't been an easy decision. I have been a member of the Conservative Party all my adult life. It's full of wonderful people who want the best for Britain. "My local Conservative Association in Clacton is thriving. It brims with those I'm honoured to call my friends. The problem is that many of those at the top of the Conservative Party are simply not on our side. They aren't serious about the change that Britain so desperately needs. Of course they talk the talk before elections. They say what they feel they must say to get our support... but on so many issues - on modernising our politics, on the recall of MPs, on controlling our borders on less government, on bank reform, on cutting public debt, on an EU referendum - they never actually make it happen."

There was no need for Mr. Carswell to resign his seat to force a by-election. He was legally entitled to sit through the lifetime of this parliament. However, by resigning, he is creating a huge opportunity for his new party and a huge headache for his old one.

There is a real chance the Mr. Carswell will retain the seat. While the seat is safely Tory, there is a genuine anti-EU feeling in Clacton because of the constituency's elderly population. Demographically, UKIP is most popular among the over-60 crowd who have memories of Britain outside Europe, and indeed, some memories of The Empire. Tories in the area stand for election as Eurosceptics not Europhiles.

If he retains he seat, two things could well happen. First, there may well be more defections as other MPs in the Eurosceptic faction of the Conservative Party make a similar move. Second, a Carswell re-election would increase the pressure on Mr. Cameron and the other Tory Party leadership to enter into a pre-electoral pact with UKIP. The result would be more MPs for UKIP after the election and fewer Tories winning seats.

Naturally therefore, the Tories have already started their campaigning against him. Mark Pritchard, another MP who dislikes Brussels intensely, has already stated, "vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour." Under the first past the post system used in British elections, that isn't entirely accurate, but it can have the effect of helping Labour. In the UK, the gerrymandering hasn't reached American levels, but there are far too many safe seats. UKIP simply makes safe Tory seats marginals, but one is hard put to believe that a stronger UKIP would result in a Labour landslide. Another hung parliament is much more likely, and that could result in Labour running things with help from the Liberal Democrats.

There is just one problem for Mr. Carswell. If he does win the by-election, there is no guarantee that he will be the candidate for UKIP in next year's general election. UKIP has already selected Roger Lord as its candidate for the general election, and he has no intention of stepping aside. Indeed, it isn't entirely clear if he and some of the local activists will resist Mr. Carswell's candidacy in the by-election.

The writ has yet to drop, but the consensus among pundits is that the by-election will happen in October, after the Scottish independence referendum. By next year, the political map of the UK may be much different.

© Copyright 2014 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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