Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Poll Says Scot Nationalists Will Crush Labour in General Election

The Labour Party collaborated with the Tories and Liberal Democrats during the recent campaign on Scottish Independence. This identification as a London party is already coming back to haunt Labour. The leader of the Scottish Labour Party has resigned claiming that Scottish Labour is treated like a branch office by the London headquarters. In addition, an Ipsos-Mori poll out yesterday gives the SNP 52% of the vote while Labour would get just 23%. Labour would lose 40 seats based on this, and that would be the end of Ed Miliband's hopes of entering Number 10.

STV, which commissioned the poll, reported, "The full breakdown of STV's Ipsos Mori poll is SNP 52%, Scottish Labour 23%, Scottish Conservatives 10%, Scottish Liberal Democrats 6%, Scottish Green Party 6%, Ukip 2% and 1% support for others." If this held on polling day, the SNP would have 54 seats at Westminster, Labour 4, Liberal Democrats 1 and the Tories none.

SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon, who will shortly be named First Minister, said, "Support of 52% for the SNP at Westminster is further proof that the referendum has changed Scottish politics forever. More and more people are choosing to put their trust in the SNP as disillusion with the entire Westminster establishment grows. London Labour's treatment of their party in Scotland as nothing more than a 'branch office' has left them in meltdown. As a result, people across the country realise that Ed Miliband doesn't speak for them and Labour support is in free-fall."

Mr. Miliband, of course, entered backside-covering mode quickly. He commented, "This poll is a snapshot not a prediction and let's see where we are at the general election. I'm determined and believe we can win people back to our cause in Scotland. We're going to show the people of Scotland how we're going to change Scotland, how we're going to change the United Kingdom. Yes, it's a big task but I know we can meet it."

He had better if he wants to be Prime Minister. Labour has, since the 1970s, balanced out its minority status in England with strong showings in Scotland and Wales. The truth is that if Labour were to lose 40 seats to the SNP, there are simply not 40 seats south of the border to make up for the switch.

The news is much better, obviously, for the Conservatives who have only 1 MP from Scotland. There just aren't any seats for them to lose in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats may well be reduced to the same condition this spring.

In the end, the SNP is probably not going to get 52% of the vote. The argument that voters can have Prime Minister Cameron or Prime Minister Miliband will squeeze the SNP vote. A recent poll from Survation put Labour in Scotland at 39% and the SNP at 35%. Even so, that would represent a huge loss of seats for Labour, as many as 20. Labour could make that up by picking off Liberal Democrats in England, but the question will be whether Mr. Miliband or Mr. Cameron can win a majority or whether some arrangement will be necessary with the LibDems or SNP to create a working majority to pass a budget.

Scotland may have voted "No" to independence, but it is hard to see the issue of rebalancing the power between Edinburgh and London going away any time soon. The three major parties need to get ahead of the curve on this, and Labour has more to lose than the Tories or LibDems. Time for Mr. Miliband to declare the Scottish Labour Party an independent body and to come out in favor of devolving all powers save foreign and defense policy to the Scottish Parliament. That might win him one term as PM. Of course, that means no more Scottish MPs voting on anything but defense and foreign affairs. And that might be the end of Labour.

© Copyright 2014 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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