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Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
UK Greens Surge while Labour's Lead Shrinks
Britain's latest poll numbers, just a few months ahead of the general election, should be grounds for concern among the opposition Labour Party's fans. Its lead in the opinion polls over the coalition-leading Conservatives is just 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, the Green Party has moved to 9 percent support. The triopoly of Tory, Liberal and Labour that has persisted since the demise of the Con-Lib duopoly 100 years ago has ended.
The last Guardian/ICM poll puts Labour ahead with 33% of the vote. The Conservatives are at 30%, while the Liberal Democrats and the UK Independence Party both have 11%. The Greens have reached a 20-year high at 9%, and "others" (largely Scottish National Party and the Ulster parties) account for the remaining 7%. While the Greens are fifth, their support is up 4% from the previous Guardian/ICM poll.
This surge is in line with other polls that have the Greens in the 5-11% range. UK Polling Report stated:
Support [for the Green Party] varies between 11 percent from Ashcroft and just 3 percent from Populus. For the very low scores from Populus and ComRes there are at least clear methodological reasons: Populus downweight voters who identify as Green supporters quite heavily, while in ComRes's online polls they appear to have added a much stricter turnout filter to Green and UKIP voters since they started prompting for UKIP. At the other end of the scale Lord Ashcroft's polls have consistently tended to show a higher level of support for parties outside the traditional big three, but the reasons for this are unclear.
"The parties we used to relegate to the margins with the term 'others' are now moving centre stage", said Martin Boon of ICM, "the combined forces of all those outside the old LibLabCon triopoly has never been stronger during three decades of Guardian/ICM polling."
The other factor that will play out in May's general election is the support for the Scottish National Party. UK Polling Report also said "Meanwhile there was a new Scottish poll from Survation from the Daily Record. Topline Westminster voting intentions with changes from Survation's previous poll are CON 14%(-2), LAB 26%(+2), LDEM 7%(+2), SNP 46%(-2), GRN 3%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). (tabs). It shows a small narrowing in the SNP lead, but it was from an extremely large lead last time, so it still leaves them with a huge twenty point lead." [Emphasis in original]
The SNP, unlike UKIP and the Greens, has its support geographically concentrated, and this means it can win seats in substantial numbers in the coming election. Dozens of SNP MPs will take their seats in Westminster if the party's 46% support holds up.
Since Britain has tried and liked the American-style debates among the leaders, this boost to the Greens will help them make the argument that they should be included in the televised debates. Mr. Cameron has said he won't participate without the Greens. The question really is whether the SNP should join the other five.
The trends in recent polls all say more or less the same thing. In short, the Green Party is bleeding off Labour support despite the unpopularity of the Tories and their LibDem coalition partners. UKIP, however, seems to be taking votes from the Conservatives. The LibDems are back to their historical levels of support. A betting man would consider putting a few pounds down on a hung parliament, and a tuppence on a Labour majority.
© Copyright 2015 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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