Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Turkey Attacks ISIS, Kurds

The Turkish government has undergone a significant change of heart with regard to ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers' Party [PKK]. It had been, at best, a reluctant partner with the US in fighting ISIS. It had also been observing a ceasefire with the PKK; it was shaky but holding. Then, a series of violent incidents brought on Turkish airstrikes against both. Today, NATO is meeting at the behest of Turkey to discuss Turkish security. A week truly is a long time in politics.

The event that sparked the avalanche of violence occurred Monday, July 20, when ISIS-linked militants murdered 32 people in the Kurdish city of Suruc, Turkey, near the Syrian border. On the 23rd, a Turkish border guard was shot dead; an ISIS gunman appears to have pulled the trigger. Two Turkish police officers were also shot dead, allegedly by the PKK in retaliation for the Suruc incident. On Friday, July 24, the Turkish authorities arrested hundreds of ISIS supporters, and Turkish F-16 jets struck three ISIS bases in Syria. The next day, the Turkish air force struck ISIS again as well as the PKK.

President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters in Ankara that it was "not possible to continue the peace process with those who threaten our national unity and brotherhood." However, his critics believe that there is an internal, political objective. Turkey's pro-Kurdish opposition party, the People's Democratic Party (HDP), dismissed the claim. Reuters said HDP chairman Selahattin Demirtas insisted his party's only crime was winning 13% of the vote in June elections. Attacking the PKK paints the entire Kurdish political movement as doubtful patriots. Mr. Erdogan is not known as a die-hard defender of democratic values.

Regardless of his motives, the shift in Turkish policy creates a great many difficulties for NATO in general and the US in particular. The Syrian Civil War has run for years, and NATO has not intervened in any meaningful way thus far. If Turkey is going to become an active participant in that conflict, and if it is going to claim such action is necessary for its national security, NATO may find itself on a slippery slope.

For the US, the ability to use bases in Turkey to strike at ISIS is a great help, but at the same time, Kurdsh peshmerga fighters are the only troops who have been willing and able to fight ISIS. If the Turks are going to hamper the efforts of the peshmerga under the guise of fighting the PKK, the quagmire gets deeper.

Ideally, the Turks and the Kurds would bury the issue of Kurdish autonomy until ISIS is defeated, the Assad regime collapses and a decent government is installed in Damascus. Or alternative, the Turks would make concessions unilaterally on such autonomy. Neither is going to happen.

Defeating ISIS is a major US foreign policy objective. A key to that is the peshmerga war effort. Maintaining the historic alliance with Turkey is another important objective. Yet these seem to be in conflict. Defeating ISIS depends on the Kurds, and the Turkish alliance requires keeping the Kurds in check on matters of autonomy.

There is no straightforward solution to this situation. A new Turkish government isn't in the cards, nor will another force arise in Syria and Iraq to crush ISIS, making the peshmerga irrelevant. The Assad regime has its hands full, and were it to triumph over ISIS, that would be only slightly preferable to ISIS taking Damascus.

What the US and NATO must do is quiet, small-ball diplomacy -- the kind of thing for which the electorate has no patience. Fortunately, the situation is not really playing much of a role in US politics at the moment, but an incident that gets an American killed would bring it to the forefront of the 2016 presidential campaign. One must just hope small-ball has time to reinforce the Turkish alliance, give the Kurds room to work against ISIS and that ISIS suffers from internal factionalism.

© Copyright 2015 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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