Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

NATO Says Russian Violation of Turkish Airspace Deliberate

The General-Secretary of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, has stated that the Russian violation of Turkish airspace on Sunday was deliberate. A violation on Saturday has been ascribed by Russia to bad weather, and it is investigating Sunday's incident. Whether deliberate or accidental, the fact that Russian air assets are in Turkish airspace at all as part of their fight in Syria is dangerous. Should the Turks decide to shoot down a Russian plane over Turkish territory, the situation in Syria right now will look like a mild argument.

Ankara is upset not just with these violations, but also with Russia's decision to intervene in Syria. The Turks want to set up a buffer zone inside Syria, a safe haven for refugees currently burdening Turkey. Russia's bombing more or less kills that idea off. Russian planes flying over Turkish territory just makes the Erdogan government angrier.

President Erdogan went so far as to say, "Our positive relationship with Russia is known. But if Russia loses a friend like Turkey, with whom it has been cooperating on many issues, it will lose a lot, and it should know that," he said. "An attack on Turkey means an attack on NATO," President Erdogan told a joint news conference in Brussels with the Belgian prime minister.

There are two big problems with the situation as it stands. As the BBC's Mark Lowen noted, "First, any violation of Turkish airspace could lead to the object being shot down, which would dramatically escalate events. Second, there could be a mid-air collision close to Turkey's borders, as this is the first time since World War Two that Russian and American combat planes have been in the skies over Syria."

The Beeb also states, "Turkey's army also says an unidentified fighter jet locked its radar on to eight of its jets on Monday. It echoes a similar incident on Sunday, when an unidentified Mig-29 - which analysts say may have been Syrian - locked its radar onto Turkish jets for more than five minutes over the Turkish-Syrian border."

The locking of radar, colloquially known as "painting" a target, is a necessary prelude to opening fire. It is used by pilots as a warning of hostile or aggressive intent.

General-Secretary Stoltenberg has backed up Turkey. He stated that the Russian violation on Sunday was "unacceptable", saying Nato was taking it "very seriously" and warning that "incidents, accidents, may create dangerous situations".

Turkey shot down a Syrian jet last year and a helicopter only a few months ago, both of which had strayed into its airspace. The Syrians shot down a Turkish Phantom jet in June 2012 off their coast, quickly acknowledging that it was a mistake. Change the actor from Syria to Russia, and a NATO-Russia confrontation could ensue in minutes.

Mr. Putin has put his military into action in Syria largely as an exercise is chest-beating. He hasn't sent sufficient forces to tip the scales over the long term, and the effectiveness of Russian aerial bombing remains an unknown. It would be wise for him and his counterparts in NATO to use the direct military-to-military channels of communication that exist, which he has not done. Some kind of coordination or exchange of information would make the skies over Turkey and Syria less of a flash point. The question is whether that's what Mr. Putin wants.

© Copyright 2015 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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