Anti-Establishment

13 January 2015

Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Sanders, Trump Landslides in New Hampshire

The voters of New Hampshire produced a result in their primaries yesterday that offered the establishments of the Democratic and Republican parties the worst possible outcomes. Failed casino owner and inheritor of millions Donald Trump won by almost 20% on the Republican side. Geriatric socialist and non-member of the party Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton by more than 20% on the Democratic side. If some things don't change, two outsiders might wind up with the nominations.

On the GOP side, the Trump vote matched the polls, unlike in Iowa where the caucus system demands more organization than Mr. Trump had. He won with 35% of the vote, followed by Ohio Governor and genuine threat to the Democrats in November John Kasich who scored just under 16%. Texas Senator and former Canadian citizen Ted Cruz was third. He was followed by Jeb! Bush at 11.07%, and Marco Rubio at 10.5%. Chris Christie won 7.5% of the vote, and just about the same amount was divided by other candidates. These percentages come from the Associated Press and represent 92.3% of precincts reporting.

The problem for the Republican establishment is that it has four candidates (Messrs. Kasich, Bush, Rubio and Christie) in the race whose total vote adds up to about 45% of the vote. Were a single establishment candidate involved, 40% would likely be that individual's floor. Polling suggests that Mr. Trump's ceiling is around the same level. Within the next month, the GOP rules for delegate selection change to winner-take-all in most states. That means that Mr. Trump's 35% of the vote will start earning him 100% of a state's delegates to the national nominating convention. The RNC needs to start pressuring candidates to quit soon, or the arithmetic is going to make Mr. Trump the nominee. Given his lack of popularity among women and minorities, he would probably face a general-election defeat of devastating proportions and take the down-ballot GOP with him. By April 1, though, it could be too late to change direction.

On the Democratic side, it should never have been close. Hillary Clinton should have wiped with floor with Bernie Sanders. Her people are spinning this defeat as a pre-season match because Mr. Sanders is from Vermont next door. That argument only acknowledges that he had name recognition on a par with hers. Yet, she won New Hampshire last time. She was First Lady, Senator from New York and Secretary of State. If anything, she had ever more name recognition. What ought to scare her is the fact that she lost every demographic, including women by 53% to 47%. Based on this showing, Iowa's result and the 2008 campaign, one has to wonder if Hillary Clinton is really all that good at campaigning in a contested race. No doubt, the world will hear of a shake up in her campaign, a refocusing of the message, and maybe she will "find her voice" for the millionth time. Her race isn't run, but she's snakebit, and she needs to get her house in order quickly.

Meanwhile, those who are feeling the Bern for Mr. Sanders had best hold onto their hats. The Clintonistas are angry and wounded, and experience shows that they fight dirty when they are in that condition. Expect nastiness and pettiness from the Clinton campaign's surrogates and expect to see the vicious side of Bill Clinton. About half of the superdelegates are already in Clinton's column, and MSNBC's commentators like Chris Matthews are in the tank for her. In 2008, the Clinton campaign started losing the black vote once it became clear that Barack Obama could win white votes; black Americans dared to think he could win, and they voted for him to tell their children that they voted for the first black president. Mr. Sanders' position is in no way similar. He will do better among black and Hispanic voters than many anticipate, but they will stick with what they know in sufficient numbers for Mrs. Clinton to win.

The problem for the GOP establishment is that their race may end too soon for them to stop Mr. Trump. The trouble the establishment in the Democratic Party faces is that their race will go on longer and be nastier and more destructive of the nominee and of party unity than is good for Mrs. Clinton's hopes.

And while a Trump-Sanders general election is still a long shot, such a choice would bring New York's ex-mayor Michael Bloomberg into the race. He has at least 10 times the money Mr. Trump has, and that could set up an electoral college deadlock, with the White House being decided by the House of Representatives in January. None of that is good for the party establishments.

© Copyright 2016 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



Kensington Review Home

Google

Follow KensingtonReview on Twitter