Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Clinton, Trump Run up Delegate Counts in Northeast

Five states held primaries yesteday to choose delegates to the Republican and Democratic National Conventions. On the GOP side, Donald Trump won all five. On the Democratic side, Mrs. Clinton won Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. Mr. Sanders prevailed in Rhode Island. The main point is that both frontrunners added hugely to their delegate count and widened their respective leads over their rivals. Barring an act of God, the November general election will pit Mr. Trump against Mrs. Clinton in what promises to be the nastiest campaign in living memory.

Starting with the Democrats, Mrs. Clinton added 205 to her hard delegate count as assessed by TheGreenPapers.com and Mr. Sanders picked up 141. This expanded Mrs. Clinton's lead in pledged delegates to 1,567 to Mr. Sanders' 1,193. It takes 2,382 to win the nomination. When the superdelegates (unelected, party hack delegates) who have announced a preference, the so-called "soft count" stands at 2,134 for Mrs. Clinton and 1,387 for Mr. Sanders. In other words, another 250 or so for Mrs. Clinton will make her the presumptive nominee. The Sanders campaign has talked a lot about peeling off superdelegates and overtaking Mrs. Clinton in pledged delegates, neither of which is going to happen. Once the media announce Mrs. Clinton is at 2,383 (probably not until California vote on June 7), the superdelegates will be impossible to move -- no politician gets off a successful bandwagon.

As for the Republicans, Mr. Trump added 110 to his delegate total (putting him over 200 for the month) taking him to 957. Ted Cruz added 3 to reach 547, and John Kasich picked up 5 for a total of 154. It takes 1,237 to win the nomination, and Mr. Cruz was mathematically eliminated from a first-ballot victory yesterday. He needs more delegates than there are available from here on.

This journal believes Mr. Trump can win the 1,237 delegates he needs when California and New Jersey vote in June, and calculations here said he needed 175 delegates from the month of April. Based on that, he is actually ahead of expectations. He is 280 delegates short of a majority.

In reality, there are almost no places where the stop-Trump movement can go. Indiana is the next race to be held Tuesday. Its 57 delegates are awarded partially on the statewide result (30 for a plurality of the vote) and by Congressional District (3 delegates winner-take-all in the state's 9 CDs). Meaning, that a plurality of the statewide vote translates into 39 or 42 delegates at a minimum. Mr. Trump leads in the polls there by a few percentage points. For the stop-Trump crew, winning Indiana is a necessary but not sufficient requirement. If Mr. Trump wins there, it will prove lethal to their hopes.

The unknown factor at this point is the effect that last night's sweep for Mr. Trump will have on turn-out as the primary season plays out. Will the Cruz and Kasich voters decide they are wasting their time and stay home? Or will they get fired up for one last act of defiance and vote in huge numbers for their man? This will be crucial especially in Nebraska, a winner-take-all state that might be Cruz country on the grounds of organization (although this journal believes it will go to Mr. Trump).

Mr. Trump's path from here is simple. He needs about 80-100 delegates out of the 199 to be selected this month. Getting 40 from Indiana, 14 of Oregon's 28 and 22 of Washington State's 44 more or less does that. West Virginia's 34 are selected in a very confusing way, and while the state is clearly Trump country, he may only get 10 seats. That is still sufficient to leave him around 200 delegates short going into June.

In June, he will get New Jersey's 51 delegates in a winner-take-all race. Another 12 minimum will come from New Mexico's 24 that are awarded in proportion to the vote. Montana's 27 and South Dakota's 29 are winner-take-all prizes. While some believe he is destined to lose those, the crushing defeat he inflicted on his opponents yesterday calls that into question. Even if he loses those states, he will be 130 or so shy of the mark when California comes in the night of June 7. The Golden State has 172 delegates to the convention, and 13 are awarded for winning the state. The balance are awarded by CD, with each having 3 delegates, winner-take-all. Mr. Trump could easily win 35-40 of the CDs, and that is all he needs.

The key from here is the moral among the anti-Trump voters.

© Copyright 2016 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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