Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Trump Will Make 1,237 Delegates but Can Still Lose

The punditocracy has spent a great deal of time this spring trying to convince everyone that Donald Trump is not going to win a majority of delegates to the Republican National Convention, and therefore, he is not guaranteed to be the nominee. They have been consistently wrong on Mr. Trump's inevitability, and as this journal predicted in January, he will go to the Cleveland conclave with 1,237 or more delegates, a majority bound to vote for him on the first ballot. However, that doesn't mean he is guaranteed the nomination. He can still lose this at the convention.

At first glance, that sounds contradictory. If he has a majority who are required to vote for him on the first ballot, surely that is the end of the matter. However, the bound delegates are only required to vote for Mr. Trump (or for whomever they are pledged to vote) for the presidential nomination. In all other matters of the convention they are free agents. That means they can do what they want on the platform, rules and credentials committees.

A great many of the Trump delegates are not really fans of Mr. Trump. They are party activists who have their own preferences and the price of going to the convention was a first-ballot vote for Mr. Trump. Among them are quite likely fans of Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich and even Congressman Paul Ryan. There is nothing that would force them to vote in ways that help Mr. Trump except in the nomination of the candidate at the convention.

The key to defeating Mr. Trump is to prevent him from winning on the first ballot even with a majority of delegates. That will require a change in the rules. There are 110 members of the rules committee, two from each state or territory. If the anti-Trump forces can assemble 56 votes, they can do whatever they want with the rules. If they don't have 56 votes on the rules committee, playing games on the credentials committee could alter the compositon of the rules committee to achieve 56 votes.

Presuming the stop-Trump forces have a majority on the rules committee, they need to find a rule change that will stop Mr. Trump despite having a majority of the votes. One option is to raise the threshold from a simple majority to a super-majority (3/5 or 2/3). Moreover, they could make that the requirement for the first ballot only. That would allow another candidate to emerge and not need to work so hard.

Alternatively, they could leave the majority in place at 1,237 but require a majority of delegates from 4/5 of the states or territories be included in that majority. Or, the 1,237 stays but the first ballot nominee must have 2/3 of the delegates of the states that voted Republican in 2012. Moreover, when doing this, the credentials committee can tinker with who gets seated to ensure whatever the threshold is cannot be met.

This strategy will almost certainly fracture the party. Mr. Trump's complaint about a rigged system will be validated. The defeat in November will be as bad as bad can be. Moreover, there will be semi-permanent chaos on the right through another election cycle at least. Mr. Trump may well be tempted to spend some money to build a permanent Party of Trump, much as Ross Perot tried to do. If so, the GOP may well lose the 2020 election this summer, more than four years before it is held.

The point is that Mr. Trump can still be kept off the Republican ticket in November. However, the price to do is rising every day. At this juncture, preventing Mr. Trump from winning on the first ballot appears to demand a Democratic presidency, perhaps two-terms' worth. That is a steep price to pay.

The alternative for the GOP is to acquiesce to the will of the voters, lose with Mr. Trump, and sit down to create rules for 2016 that will result in someone plausible winning the nomination. It still requires a Democratic presidency, but this way, the party doesn't fracture and the Democrats might be ousted in 2020.

© Copyright 2016 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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