Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Remain Result Won't Settle Brexit Issue

On Thursday, the British voters go to the polls to decide the fate of Europe. They will be voting on whether to remain part of the European Union or to withdraw from it. Their decision will affect European politics for years to come. A vote to leave will throw the future of the entire European project into doubt. A vote to stay, say the pundits, will allow Europe to move forward secure in the knowledge that the issue is settled. However, it won't be settled if the Remain vote prevails, especially in a close result. A second referendum will likely happen before a decade passes.

The entire idea of a referendum in politics is to consult public opinion directly with a simple yes or no question. Democracy in its purest form is called upon to decide an issue. In some American states, there are referenda questions on every general election ballot. In Europe, they are less common, but not unheard of. In Britain, with the exception of the Scottish Independence vote last year, there has not been a referendum since Britain went into the European Economic Community in the 1970s. Parliament prefers to keep the legislative powers to itself, so when there is a referendum, it is, as Joe Biden would say, "a big f*cking deal."

If the Brits vote to leave, this journal predicts it will presage the collapse of the United Kingdom. The Celtic Periphery is going to vote to stay in Europe, certainly the Scots will, and the Welsh may follow suit about as strongly. In Ulster, local politics will confuse the matter, but the province is better off inside the EU than outside, and most voters (Orange and Green alike) understand that. English nationalism will have carried the day if Leave succeeds, and then, Scotland will hold a second indepdence referendum, which will pass. The Welsh will discover an even greater need for power in Cardiff, and Ulster will simply find itself in a chaotic environment that makes finding compromise in local politics harder.

If Remain prevails by a 2-to-1 majority, the future of Britain in the EU will be a closed book, say the experts. The people will have been consulted and a vast number of Britons will have said the future of their country (composed of at least four nations) lies with the Continent. The UKIP will lose its appeal, and the Conservative Party's Eurosceptic wing will shrink to a few noisy backbenchers who can't get any press any other way. At least, this is so in theory.

However, if Remain wins the day with a 52-48% split, the margin of victory leaves open the door for another referendum. When one speaks of a parliamentary candidate or even an entire government being elected with a narrow majority, the five years in office that such a victory entails means that the voters can have a second shot at things further down the road. When one discusses the future of an entire nation, the chance to review an issue that failed to pass by just a few percentage points five years may actually be about the right interval before the defeated can legitimately demand another chance.

In this regard, there are two useful examples, Quebec and Scotland. In the case of La Belle Province, there were two votes on the future of the Quebec and Canada -- one in 1980 and another in 1995. In both cases, the Parti Quebecois won a provincial election on a platform of holding such a referendum. In 1980, the status quo carried almost 60% of the vote. However, 15 years later, another referendum was held because an agreement among the provinces to address Quebec's status and interests (Meech Lake Accords) fell apart in 1990. The independence forces had new reason to challenge a 60-40 defeat, and lost the second vote 50.58% to 49.42%. Since then, independence talk remains on the back burner, but it isn't a dead issue.

As for Scotland, the Nationalists lost the referendum last year, and they have vowed to respect that, so long as nothing new comes up to change the situation. Were the UK to leave the EU despite a majority of Scots voting to stay that would be enough.

If Remain prevails narrowly, developments in Europe over the next 10 years could create a new climate in which, like the SNP and the PQ, the Leave camp could make a case for trying again. Even a 60-40 split might not finish this.

© Copyright 2016 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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