Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Kensington Review Says Brits Must Vote to Stay in EU

The British go to the polls tomorrow to answer the question "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" The Kensington Review, as close a friend to the British people as one can be short of becoming British, urges everyone who can vote to mark his or her ballot paper in favor of remaining in the EU. The arguments in favor of remaining are political, economic and military.

The goal in politics is to control one's life as much as possible, to have power over one's environment. At first blush, this might favor a vote to leave, but upon reflection, it is a strong argument in favor of remaining. Thanks to its Special Relationship with the US and its membership in NATO, Britain "punches above its weight internationally." That is to say, as a member of NATO and as America's best friend in Europe, Britain has more influence over global affairs than if it were not. The same is true of EU membership. Outside, the Leave campaign argues that Britain will be able to set its own course, free from the rules of Brussels. This is simply untrue. Europe will be there, and Britain will have to trade with it, negotiate agreements with it, and in general, put up with it. The difference is that by remaining an EU member, Britain will have a greater say in all things European. Britain alone is not in as strong a position to gets its way as Britain in the EU.

Economically, the facts speak for themselves. Those who argue for leaving claim it will unleash the power of British entrepreneurial genius, and a new golden age lies ahead. These tend to be the same people who say cutting tax rates boost government revenue through the same magical entrepreneurialism. The IMF, which is full of economists, says any gain would probably be offset by a permanent devaluation of the pound. Moreover, it suggests that rapid negotiations on departure terms would see sterling depreciate by 5%, GDP growth slip to 1.4% in 2017 and unemployment rise slightly. Slower negotiations would probably result in recession next year, with 7% unemployment, high inflation and stagnant real wages.

The arithmetic is easy enough. The cost of voting to Leave will be born over a long period of time while the world adjusts, and Britain will do most of the adjusting starting will a fall in the value of the pound in the over-night trading Thursday-Friday. The benefits to leaving, whatever they may be, will not be realized starting next week. They will take months and years to materialize, if they exist.

As for national security, the 20-odd miles between Dover and Calais doesn't cut the problems of the Continent off from British shores. Short of erecting a Berlin Wall, people are going to move between Britain and the Continent, not all of them with love and peace in their hearts. That's why there is a police force. However, coordinating police work and counter-terror activities is easier as part of the EU, and Britain will be able to shape those activities better from within.

Finally, this is the first generation of Britons who have never seen a general war in Europe. Those lucky enough to be born in the 1950s onwards have never known foreign aircraft over the skies of Britain that were full bombs instead of tourists. Britain has been at war since 1945, but never has Britain itself been struck by more than an IRA car bomb. Peace in Europe has, in part, rested in the European Project. That has certainly been the case since the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Nasty little wars in the former Warsaw Pact nations could easily have spilled over into neighboring countries as happened in 1914. The attraction of joining the EU has kept the worst and most corrosive aspects of petty nationalism in check. To undermine the EU, therefore, is to undermine the peace Europe has enjoyed.

The appeal of the Leave case lies in a nostalgia for the path not taken, and a future that is brighter if only wishing could make it so. Remain is the only plausible vote for someone who wants Britain's 21st century to be a prosperous and peaceful one.

© Copyright 2016 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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