Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Cameron Gambled, Lost No Matter the Outcome

The polls are open across Britain, and the future of Europe is being decided. It should never have come to this. Whether the Remain folks win or whether the Leavers carry the day, there is a big loser. David Cameron called this referendum to heal a split in the Conservative Party over Europe. His idea was for a Remain vote to win by a large margin and silence the Eurosceptic faction of the Tory party for a decade or two. Not only will they not fall silent, they are louder than ever.

Obviously, the worst outcome for Mr. Cameron is if Leave wins a majority. While he has said he would continue on as Prime Minister regardless of the outcome, it is difficult to envision him staying at Number 10 for much more than a week. The Tory Party powerbrokers will either ease him out, convince him to leave for the good of the nation, or find a candidate (not necessarily Boris Johnson) to stand against him in a leadership fight. All the Leave Tories will back his rival, and his own supporters will be split between those who want him to stay on and those who believe he is doomed. Leave plus doomed is a majority. One expects him to go quietly and quickly to retain some dignity.

In the event Remain prevails, Mr. Cameron will be on breakfast TV declaring that the great referendum has settled the matter of British membership in the EU once and for all. He will be wrong. At this stage, the polls suggest that the worst Leave will do is around 47-48% of the vote. That is not the kind of crushing defeat that Mr. Cameron would need to truly end the Eurosceptic influence in British politics. Indeed, that kind of result would please the UK Independence Party almost as much as winning. UKIP would have quite a boost going into the 2020 general election.

This journal genuinely believes that the result of the referendum will be in favor of Remain but only by a few percentage points. The rift in the Tory Party will persist, although some will defect to UKIP. Anti-Brussels, anti-immigrant propaganda is going to increase as the troubles that have created the immigrant wave are not abating. The British economy, mismanaged by the austerity Conservatives, will continue its anemic growth and will dip into negative growth from time to time. By 2020, Britain will not be "Cool Britannia" so much as a country still divided against itself.

That would normally result in a Labour government, but under Jeremy Corbyn, one may not see Labour take over the role of government. With constituency boundary changes and a reduction in the number of MPs, as well as continued strength of the SNP north of Hadrian's Wall, it is quite likely that the Conservatives win the most seats in the next general election. If they don't have a majority, the arithmetic of the House of Commons will decide the future of the country in Europe. If UKIP has sufficient seats to be a junior coalition partner, a second referendum will be the price. In 2024, the campaign playing out today may be revived.

The troubling thing about all of this is that is was entirely unnecessary. The howling of the Eurosceptic right really didn't affect the Conservatives' government. It was an annoyance to be sure, and UKIP did have the capacity to embarrass the government at by-election time. However, there was absolutely no reason to ever promise, let alone hold, a referendum. The sniping from the Leave quarter actually strengthened Mr. Cameron's hand in Brussels.

Referenda are largely alien to British politics. This current one is the third nationwide plebiscite ever. The first in 1974 was over staying in Europe, and in 2011, the nation rejected an alternative vote electoral system. Traditionally, general elections are held on significantly large matters like the EU. Mr. Cameron decided not to go that route because his party was split over it. He was too clever by half. The referendum merely exaggerated the split because he underestimated the effects of a weak economy and an influx of immigrants.

This journal looks forward to a new Prime Minister before the year is out.

© Copyright 2016 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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