Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Britain Votes to Leave EU

In one of the greatest self-inflicted wounds of all time, the British electorate voted yesterday to leave the European Union. About 17.4 million voters chose Leave, while 16.1 million opted for Remain. The financial markets are in a panic, and the long process of negotiations regarding the divorce settlement are beginning. David Cameron has announced he will step down as Prime Minister by the Tory Party conference in October. Other European states are considering similar referenda. The future is going to be one long salvage operation to see what can be saved from the mess.

The result does not end Britain's ties to Europe as they were at the beginning of the week. It merely puts the government on notice that it needs to get Britain out of the EU. The mechanism is Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which gives two years for the arrangements on pensions, debts and so forth to be settled. After that, the future relationship of Britain and the rest of the EU is to be negotiated, and it could take up to a decade to bring these discussions to an end.

There has been some talk of delaying the process hoping the British will come to their senses, but that comes from the Remain supporters. In Brussels, the attitude is one of "let's get on with the unpleasantness." Having said "we want out," the Brits are going to have to live with it. The question really is how punitive the Eurocrats want to be. There may well be a decision to be vicious and inflict a great deal of pain to deter others from holding their own referenda on the same idea.

The EU will have some soul-searching to do now. The choice is between accelerating integration now that the Brits (who are always grumbling and complaining and dragging their feet) are gone, and slowing down and looking at a less centralized, harmonized Europe. The Gaullist view of a Europe of Nations is likely to be in the ascendant now.

However, the real changes will come in Britain. The Tory Party and UKIP are going to have to restructure the political right. David Cameron is probably the last pro-European leader of the right for the next several decades. Little England Toryism will be the order of the day. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and Greens have suffered a huge defeat, but they don't matter much either way. Labour, whose traditional supporters largely voted to Leave, still needs to figure out how to win elections without Tony Blair at the helm.

Then, there is the constitutional problem. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to Remain, but English and Welsh votes decided the matter. The SNP is now in a position to claim that the English took Scotland out of the EU, and therefore, Scotland needs to leave the UK to rejoin the EU. And Northern Ireland has a political party, Sinn Fein, that has the purpose of reuniting the 6 northern counties of Ulster with the Republic of Ireland. The idea of being in Europe might bring over enough Orange votes to erase the border. And there will be violence if that happens.

Britain had a choice between being a major player in European politics influencing its environment and leaving the EU and hoping that its newly acquired freedom of action was not an illusion. Britain has chosen to matter less than Italy does in world affairs. The great irony is that the old folks who won't have to live in this lesser Britain voted for it. Those under 40 wanted to stay. Thus, the sins of the fathers are visited upon the sons.

It is too late to complain about the needless folly of even posing the question. It is too late to plan ways to derail the withdrawal. It is too late to argue for a second referendum after a general election that will come sooner than 2020. Britain has broken the EU, and it has broken itself. All the Queen's Horses and all the Queen's Men, cannot put this mess together again. Now, it's just a salvage operation.

© Copyright 2016 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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