Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Clinton Wins Irrelevant Debate with Trump

The idea of a debate between two candidates for office sounds noble and wise in theory. Contrasting and comparing policies, perspectives and personalities should lead the electorate to an informed, and therefore, prudent decision. In practice, the debates America has had in recent decades among the various candidates are unworthy of the name "debate." The encounter last night between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump merely illustrated the gap between the noble idea and the foolish practice. While Mrs. Clinton won (whatever that may mean), the event had no measurable effect on the election. It revealed even less about what sort of president each might be.

The important thing to remember is that the majority of voters have already made up their minds, and in some jurisdictions where there is early voting, some voters have already cast their ballots (meaning any communication with them is pointless). Debates are supposed to be persuasive, but only 11% of the electorate is persuadable, as defined by pollsters. Instead, the debates engage the bases of both parties. That's great for fundraising and volunteer development, but those bring new votes to the candidate only indirectly, if at all.

Moreover, it is entirely possible for a partisan viewer to admit that the opposition won the day without changing the support the viewer has for his or her candidate. An honest supporter of Donald Trump may admit Mrs. Clinton won last night's debate and still donate to, volunteer and vote for Mr. Trump. So while each campaign is trying to convince the world that they won, it is a matter of supreme indifference who prevailed.

Also, as Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia (perhaps America's best psephologist) noted in this morning's newsletter, "the polling bump registered for a 'winning' candidate disappears within a week or 10 days. Then the race is pretty much back to where it was." In other words, even if Mrs. Clinton picked up 5% against Mr. Trump last night, around Thursday of next week, that 5% will have evaporated. So, unless voters cast ballots in the next 10 days, the effect on the actual outcome of election will be nil.

The 90-minute encounter demonstrated a great many things about each candidate but whether any of it is relevant to service as the President of the United States is difficult to say. Mr. Trump's fidgeting and Mrs. Clinton's speaking voice may be part of the discussion in the post-action evaluations, but in truth, the job of POTUS demands a great many things that were not discovered in the debate, and indeed, are not discovered in a campaign. The skills of successful campaigner and successful leader of the free world may overlap in places, but in general, they do not.

The great failing of American democracy in the last few decades has been the development of the permanent campaign. These days, there is never a time when a politician takes a break from campaigning, and that prevents said politician from effectively governing. Rather than do the job of elected official, the people in office remain in campaign mode, calculating how each vote will affect fund raising and primary prospects for the next election cycle. The system has become one of selecting successful candidates who continue campaigning after the election is over because there is another coming up in a few years.

The primary and caucus system has resulted in a face-off between the two most despised candidates in American history. The electorate will cast ballots against a candidate rather than for one. American democracy has become a giant veto. The problem, however, is not the candidates. It is the voter. The voter is to blame for not caring to learn the issues, for not engaging in skeptical review of parties, policies and personalities. Changes to the system will have marginal effects compared to a change in the civic outlook of the electorate.

© Copyright 2016 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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