Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

PM May Says Hard Brexit Ahead

Prime Minister Teresa May told the House of Commons just what Brexit means to the government and what objectives it will pursue in its negotiations with the European Union. She has opted for a hard Brexit, where most of the ties are to be renegotiated, and in the absence of agreement, they are probably to be severed. She went so far as to say, "no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain." One expects this to be a costly decision for all involved. Disaster is not too tough a word.

The wording of the referendum question leaves little room for debate about Britain leaving. "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" Britain voted to leave (England and Wales did, to be precise. Scotland and Northern Ireland are being forced to leave against their will). Leaving doesn't mean giving up one or two things and sticking around for the rest. Leave means leave, according to the PM.

So, membership in the single market is the first benefit to go. Because membership would require Britain to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, Britain will not be a member. It will not have automatic access to the 27 other members' markets. An entirely new arrangement will have to be negotiated. The government will seek a "comprehensive free trade agreement" with "the greatest possible access." Just one of the 27 others can shoot down the whole thing. Britain's access is now in the hands of others.

Next, and related, the Brits need a customs agreement with the EU. Ms. May said, "Whether that means we must reach a completely new customs agreement, become an associate member of the customs union in some way, or remain a signatory to some elements of it, I hold no preconceived position." The Europeans, once again, will decide what Britain gets. No agreement is certainly a possible outcome.

Migration was the cornerstone of the Leave campaign, and Ms. May said, "The message from the public before and during the referendum campaign was clear: Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe. And that is what we will deliver." The converse, however, is also true. Europeans will decide how many Brits can cross the Channel. This affects expats, naturally. "I have said on many occasions that I expect to be able to, and wish to be able to, guarantee their status here in the UK, but we do need reciprocity - we need to have care and concern for UK citizens who are living in the European Union," Ms. May told MPs last month. If Estonia or Belgium (two examples selected at random) objects, however, there may not be any deal at all.

Britain's financial contribution to the EU is at an end, and that is clearly a win for Britain and a loss for Europe. However, Daniel Dunford wrote in the Telegraph last year, "The EU allocates the funds to each European nation to support sustainable economic development and reduce regional wealth disparities - it's their way of trying to give a boost to the poorest parts of the continent." Where does that money go? "Between 2014 and 2020, both Cornwall and West Wales will receive over €1,000 (£800) per person from the EU Structural and Investment Fund - similar to that received by Romania and Bulgaria. The Scottish Highlands, East Wales and Tees Valley will all receive over €300 per person." At least, they were going to receive that. Now, they will have to convince a Tory government in London to pay the funds out of the EU contribution saved.

The government remains committed to invoking Article 50 of the Brussels Treaty, by which a nation can withdraw from the EU, before April. That means new arrangements must be in place by March 31, 2019, or there will be no arrangements at all. Ms. May stated that a "punitive deal that punishes Britain" would be "an act of calamitous self-harm for the countries of Europe." It would "not be the act of a friend." However, this is not about Britain as far as Berlin and other capitals are concerned. This is business, not friendship. The negotiations will be about preventing an exit by another member. In the next two years, Ms May and all Britons are going to find out just how hard Brexit is going to be. It won't be pleasant.

© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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