Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Tories Take Copeland from Labour, UKIP Miss in Stoke

Two by-elections in England strengthened Prime Minister Teresa May's hand when the final results were announced early this morning. In the Cumbrian constituency of Copeland, the Conservatives took a seat that Labour had held in one form or another for 85 years, the first by-election gain by a sitting government in 35 years. It was the biggest improvement in by-election vote share over general election share since 1966. In Stoke-on-Trent Central, the UK Independence Party missed a chance to break-through when Labour held the seat. The highly pro-Brexit area did push UKIP past the Tories by a fraction of a percent, but runner-up in a first-past-the-post election still means one lost. With the opposition so divided, Ms. May's position is further enhanced.

Both by-elections stem from the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and the unwillingness of both sitting MPs to follow him. While the resignation letters and interviews tried to paint the departures of Jamie Reed (Copeland) and Tristram Hunt (Stoke) as unrelated to the leadership, the departures of MPs who were re-elected less than two years earlier can't be explained any other way. Mr. Reed left to work at Sellafield, the constituency's nuclear processing plant, and Mr. Hunt is now a director of the Victoria and Albert Museum. One wishes them both well, but clearly neither position is even a lateral career move.

Norman Smith wrote on the BBC website, "For a governing party after seven years of austerity to be sweeping aside Labour in a heartland seat and to see their share of the vote increase in another is an extraordinary achievement. It will be taken by her supporters as a vindication of her hard-edged drive towards Brexit and her break with the more metropolitan politics of David Cameron."

The Guardian states the Copeland result this way, "The Conservatives took 13,748 votes to Labour's 11,601 after a turnout of 51%. The Lib Dem candidate, Rebecca Hanson, came third with 2,252 votes." UKIP was fourth with 2,025, Independent Michael Guest scored 811, the Green Party just 515, and Independent Roy Ivinson 116. Despite Britain's multi-party system, Copeland really is a two-horse constituency. So, the result is only partially the fault of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. The Tories probably benefited from their hard Brexit attitude as Copeland voted 62% for Leave in the referendum.

In Stoke, apathy clearly carried the day. Turnout was 38%, and the constituency was the only one in the country where less than half the electorate voted in the 2015 general election. Labour local councilor Gareth Snell took 7,853 votes (a 2.22% swing away from Labour) beating Paul Nuttall, the UKIP leader (chosen 12 weeks ago), who won 5,233 votes (a swing of 2% or so to UKIP). The Tories were third with 5,154 (a 1.8% swing to them). Yet, this was the seat that voted 69.4% to Leave the EU, the Capital City of Brexit. Mr. Nuttall has now failed to win a seat in Commons in four attempts. If the UKIP party leader can't win in a place that went almost 7 out of 10 to Leave, just where can he win? Why couldn't he (or anyone) get more voters to the polling place?

Mr. Nuttall claimed his party's "time would come." He said, "There's a "We are not going anywhere, I'm not going anywhere." Well, that is true; he isn't going to Westminster. The question remains, having won the Brexit referendum, is there any point to the UKIP's continued existence?

UKIP is often thought of as a party that split from the Conservatives, and to a degree, that is true. The referendum was definitely an attempt to squelch the euro-sceptics in the Tory party and take all the oxygen from UKIP. But clearly in a seat like Stoke Central, it is eating into the Labour vote far more than many anticipated. The data on how this would play out in a general election in 2020 don't exist, but if one were a Labour campaign strategist, preparing for a two-front war might be sound planning.

© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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