Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Repeal of Obamacare Runs into Trouble

The House of Representatives is a very simple place. The Speaker decides what bills come to the floor. Bills on the floor need 218 votes to pass. The Republican Party has more than 218 seats. It should be easy for the party to ram through anything it wants. The Republicans hate the Affordable Care Act and have vowed to repeal it. Yet last night's vote to do exactly that had to be postponed because there were not enough votes to pass the legislation. In the last Congress, the Republicans voted to repeal it 50 times. This is what comes of having a three-party system in a two-party structure.

The first interesting fact about this entire affair is the unity of the Democrats. Will Rogers, Jr., summed it up decades ago when he said that he wasn't a member of an organized political party; he was a Democrat. It is usual for the Democrats to have a handful of members here and there defect to the Republican side. However in this case, the Democrats are voting in a solid bloc, not a single defector.

That said, that shouldn't matter since they are in the minority. If the Republicans were as united, the vote last night would have sailed through and the American Health Care Act would be on its way. They aren't, and the reason they aren't stems from the fact that the hard right Freedom Caucus is really a distinct political party. The Republican Party can afford 22 defections (owing to absences and empty seats, 215 is enough to pass a bill), and more than 30 members of the hard right don't think the new healthcare act is reactionary enough.

There has probably been a great deal of backroom negotiation and arm twisting since the vote was delayed, and such tactics will continue throughout the day. Concessions to the Freedom Caucus have already been made, and more may come. They might be sufficient to sway enough of them to cut the defections below the magic 22.

However, there is another group in the GOP, centrists relatively speaking. As the bill moves farther and farther to the right, it becomes harder and harder for them to support it. CBS News as of 6 am this morning has 35 names on its whip count page of GOP members who will vote no. For each hard right member on that list who can be moved, there is probably a moderate who might move the opposite way.

Regardless of what happens in the House, Obamacare as the Affordable Health Act is known is not going away any time soon. If a bill does come out of the House, the concessions made to the Freedom Caucus probably doom it in the Senate, where the Republicans have a narrow majority and moderates hold the key. Any changes made in the Senate would move the bill back to the center. If it passes (and it could be filibustered), the House will have to address the changes.

Mr. Trump has said that the House needs to vote today or forget the whole damn thing. The fear clearly was that a week-end in the constituencies would boost resistance. The White House lacks the focus on healthcare needed to force this through, and it may be that this is a way to cut its losses. There are easier bills to pass and less controversial promises to keep. Tax reform is probably too big, but a transportation bill might pass with some Democratic votes.

The White House needs a win. The president has been in office for over two months and he has not victories on the board yet. His immigration ban has been shot down by the courts, twice. His Russian problem has overshadowed almost everything. Losing on the healthcare bill would merely underscore what a lousy start he has had. The vote is scheduled for 4 pm. It may be held before midnight. This journal expects the bill to be pulled by Speaker Ryan before the day is over.

© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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