Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Merkel Wins Saarland as German Super Election Year Begins

The Saarland in Germany held its state election yesterday, and Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union won handily. Whether this is an indication of how the lander of Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia will vote in May, or how the federal election in September goes, is not entirely clear since it is the smallest of Germany's lander by population. Had the CDU lost, it would have been a shot across the bow of the rational right in Germany. As it is, this was a vote for stability that will hold up as long as the stability does.

Turnout was a healthy 71%, up from 61.6% in 2012. The CDU secured 40.7% of the vote, which is up from 35.2% in the 2012 election. Meanwhile, the opposition Social Democratic Party lost a point, falling to 29.6% of the vote from 30.6% in 2012. The Left party (ex-communists and their hangers on) was set to take 12.9%, Alternative for Germany (AfD, dangerous proto-fascists) 6.2% and the Greens 4.5%. Since the threshold for winning seats in the local legislature is 5% (as it is across Germany), the Greens will have no seats at all.

The outcome creates something of a coalition mess. The CDU is on track for 24 seats in the state's parliament, the SPD 17, the Left seven and the AfD three. With 51 seats total, a majority is 27. There had been speculation that a red-red-green alliance among the SPD, Left and Greens might wind up running the state, but the numbers aren't there (nor are the Greens). The CDU could govern with support from the AfD. However, that kind of arrangement is not to the taste of Dr. Merkel and her team.

The ruling CDU state premier, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, will almost certainly stay in coalition with the SPD, led nationally by Martin Schulz. The SPD had hoped for the "Schulzzug," Schulz effect, to boost their fortunes. Instead, they will continue as the junior partner. "We have to recognise that the Saarland voted for a grand coalition," conceded Frauke Petry, the AfD's co-leader. The CDU Secretary General Peter Tauber agreed, "The people decided on stability and reliability. This result is a clear rejection of red-red-green."

The big question, of course, is what does it mean nationally? With only 800,000 voters in Saarland, forecasting a CDU win across Germany on the strength of this result is only for the brave or foolhardy -- especially as the election is six months off.

In nationwide polls, the CDU (including its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union) and SPD are in a dead heat with both just topping 30%. Most polls have the CDU slightly ahead, but a couple have the SPD up by 1%. What is more important is the outlook for the minor parties nationally. The Free Democrats, the Greens, AfD and the Left are all polling consistently above 5%, meaning they would all have representation in the Bundestag after September's election.

With roughly a third of the vote going to the CDU, another third to the SPD and the remained to the smaller parties, it is almost impossible to foresee a political outcome that isn't a Grand Coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD. The big question is whether the SPD can put together a campaign that puts Herr Schulz ahead of Dr. Merkel when the votes are all counted. Simply put, can he lead the SPD to a better result and become the senior partner in the coalition? Or is Germany going to have more or less the exact same government that it has now?

One expects stability to remain the order of the day, and barring some sort of disaster, the elections in September will merely renew the Grand Coalition in one form or another.

© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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