Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Iran Re-Elects Rouhani

Iranians voted in their presidential elections on Friday, and they re-elected President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate on the Iranian political spectrum. His first-round victory with 57% of the vote gives him a mandate to move ahead with his opening of Iran to the outside. At the same time, however, President Trump spent the week-end in Saudi Arabia at a meeting of anti-Iranian world leaders. It may be that any olive branches offered by Mr. Rouhani will be rejected, and if so, he may be the last moderate elected for a long time.

Mr. Rouhani is trying to rebuild the Iranian economy throttled by global economic sanctions. These were largely lifted in January 2016 as a result of the agreement with the the P5+1 powers on Iran's nuclear future. Exports of oil are now up to 2.5 million barrels a day, and with the election settled, the nation is ready to auction off development rights. Money will be coming in. His challenge will be to ensure that the growing economy benefits more than just the well-connected. With 40% or so of the population under 25 years of age, if he can engage their enthusiasm and deliver for them, the future of Iran will look more hopeful than the dreadful past.

That problem, of course, would be hard enough to solve if Iranian politics were completely isolated from world affairs. Since there is no such vacuum, the problem becomes more difficult by several orders of magnitude. Iran is friendly with the Assad regime in Syria and funds Hezbollah, a group engaged in terrorism around the region. Opposing the Damascus government are the numerous Sunni regimes and the US. Hezbollah is no more popular in those quarters than President Assad.

So, the proxy war between the Sunni led by Saudi Arabia (and apparently backed up by the US) and the Iran-led Shi'ite interests will not only continue but will likely grow more fierce. Mr. Trump inked a $110 billion weapons deal with his Saudi hosts over the weekend, and those weapons will point toward Tehran.

In Saudi Arabia, Mr. Trump said in a prepared speech, "From Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen, Iran funds, arms, and trains terrorists, militias, and other extremist groups that spread destruction and chaos across the region. For decades, Iran has fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror. It is a government that speaks openly of mass murder, vowing the destruction of Israel, death to America, and ruin for many leaders and nations in this room." Since most of the attendees represent nations that want the destruction of Israel, this part was probably not helpful, but when calling for blood, many overlook that sort of thing.

The gravest threat to Mr. Rouhani's political future on the international level is Mr. Trump's stated hatred for the nuclear deal. If the Americans decide to withdraw from the agreement, it will force Mr. Rouhani to respond in some way. While he will still have a deal with France, the UK, China, Russia and Germany, none of these is viewed as the Great Satan. With the US pulling out, pressure for Mr. Rouhani to do likewise would soar. It would be a repudiation of his entire foreign policy.

So, Tehran is already working the press and third countries, state broadcaster Press TV demanded that the US abandon its "warmongering policy, intervention, Iranophobia and sales of dangerous and useless weapons to the main sponsors of terrorism." One would have thought that the sale of useless weapons would be a positive for world peace; apparently, Mr. Trump's speechwriters aren't the only ones who didn't get things quite right.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi, stated, "Unfortunately, under the hostile and aggressive policies of the American statesmen, we are witnessing a renewed strengthening of terrorist groups in the region and miscalculation of the dictatorships which support these groups."

As usual, the world has too many hawks and doves, and not enough owls. Mr. Rouhani may qualify as an owl, but he will need partners. Few seem available.

© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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