Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

EU Hands Britain First Brexit Defeat

Yesterday, the EU and the UK opened negotiations on Britain's departure from the European Union. The discussions are to be completed in advance of the UK's withdrawal at the end of March 2019. Undoing more than 40 years of ever-closer ties will take more time than that, but in the end, the EU holds the cards, and if Britain wants a deal, it will simply sign off on whatever is offered. It will have a hard time improving on matters, especially after the fallout from yesterday when it had to concede that the future relationship could only be addressed after most of the heavy lifting on the departure was done.

In a sensible world, this wouldn't be happening. Britain has benefited hugely from EU membership, and the EU is enriched by Britain's participation in the European project. This is not a sensible world, though. The discussions aimed at ending one relationship and replacing it with a new one are essentially discussions about divorce and "let's still be friends." There is a great deal to be settled when it comes to ending ties, and how things move forward will be heavily conditioned by how the ties end. While one may still wish to be friends, the separation can prevent that.

The surrender on the terms of the negotiations was inevitable. Because of market size and economic weight, Britain needs a deal while the EU doesn't. Yes, the EU will suffer if there is no deal, but it will survive intact. Britain is hoping for a deal that causes only a recession rather than no deal which will cause a depression. Given the relative strengths, the EU calls the shots.

This means that there are certainly more points on which the UK will be surrendering. Adam Bienkov at Business Insider put it beautifully, "While significant, Davis's early concession is just the starter in what is likely to be a veritable feast of concessions from the UK government on Brexit. These concessions are likely to come on immigration, customs and trade. However, where Britain's weakness will be most laid bare is on the question of Britain's divorce bill from the EU. This bill, for unpaid commitments by the UK could extend into the tens of billions and is likely to be hugely politically painful for the government, particularly after ministers raised the possibility of not having to pay any bill at all.

"But whatever their previous protestations the reality is that Britain will have to pay up. As [EU official negotiator Michel] Barnier made clear yesterday, failure to agree on the bill would mean refusal from the EU to even begin negotiations on Britain's future trading relationship. And whatever May publicly claims about being prepared to walk away, that would be an outcome the UK will do everything it possibly can to avoid."

The clock is ticking, and the Brits don't have the kind of time to waste on the divorce details that they might otherwise use. In order to move onto the new relationship with all of the goodies that the Tory-UKIP faction offered, the divorce needs to go through on the nod. Let Berlin, Paris and Brussels write the deal up, and let London sign it. That is the only way to salvage free-ish movement of people, goods and capital.

Of course, that will take a great deal of courage from the government, and this minority Brexit government is led by a woman who tepidly campaigned to Remain. She may be courageous, but she has the job largely because no one else at this stage wants it. There are no more hills to take, none worth dying on at this stage. And maybe, just maybe, the UK can still be an ally in the European project even if it is no longer a part of it.

© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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