Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Health Care Bill Dies in the Senate, Again

There is a certain harmony to the fact that George Romero of zombie movie fame passed away the day before the Republican health care bill died again in the Senate. Repealing and replacing Obamacare is, like a zombie, a beast that won't stay dead. The latest version was sitting on a knife-edge last week with two GOP senators opposing it, and last night, two more joined them to prevent the bill from even being considered. The White House and Senate leaders are now saying they just want to repeal Obamacare and worry about replacement later. That idea is dead on arrival.

Last week, Rand Paul (R-KY) and Susan Collins (R-NH) stated that they opposed moving forward with the bill. The Republicans have 52 seats in the 100 seat Senate, meaning that they could afford no further defections, as the Democrats have been uncharacteristically united in defending Obamacare. Last night, Mike Lee of Utah and Jerry Moran of Kansas jointly announced that they, too, opposed the bill. Their unity was significant because no member of the Senate wanted to be the one to killed the bill, but there are several in the Republican Party who believe it needs to die. By jointly strangling it, neither really takes the blame, and others are now free to join in opposing it.

The immediate response by the White House and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was to announce that the Senate will vote on just repealing Obamacare next week effective in two years' time. The strategy is to take away the Obamacare reforms entirely so that the Democrats have nothing to defend, and therefore, nothing to lose by working with the Republicans on a new arrangement.

The flaw in the thinking is the mid-term elections. The plan is to take health coverage away from 32 million Americans in the repeal of the current law, and spend a year or two coming up with a new and better system. Yet in between, the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are up for re-election. There is a saying in Washington that no one remembers who gave the people anything, but the voters remember who took things away.

The danger the GOP faces is that they will have harmed 32 million (many of whom are registered voters or related to voters) without giving them anything in exchange. This gives the Democrats a golden opportunity to win back the House or Senate or both. If/when they do, they will either vote to reinstate Obamacare or to replace it with a different universal system (single payer most likely). Then, the White House would be faced with accepting a reinstated Obamacare, a more statist universal approach or vetoing the replacement, leaving things as they were back in 2009 -- or worse.

The Senate, therefore, is much more likely to offer a repeal bill next week that doesn't get the votes to even be considered. The die-hard right-wing members will be able to say they were sold down the river by the moderates. The moderates will be able to say they saved health care for 32 million Americans. Congress can then move on to failing at tax reform.

The Trump administration hasn't been much help thus far. The president doesn't understand the details of health care and so, even if he were to work the phones, wouldn't be able to sell a plan to skeptical legislators. And Jared Kushner has enough on his plate.

The Democrats, for their part, have prevented the Republicans from destroying the Obama administration's signature piece of legislation. At the same time, the exchanges are in need of repair, while the Medicaid expansion part of the law needs better funding. The system still needs work, but the fix will be a less ambitious act than repeal and replace. That is likely to set off a civil war in the Republican Party when the failure becomes obvious.

© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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