Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Trump Faces Sanction Bill Decision

The US Senate passed a bill in June that would heighten sanctions on both Iran and Russia. The vote was 98-2. In May, the House passed a bill adding sanctions to North Korea by a vote of 419-1. It now appears that these bills are headed for the president's desk soon. Indeed, they might be merged into a single piece of legislation. Whether as a single bill or a pair, the increased sanctions provided for put President Trump in a difficult position.

On the one hand, he has made a great deal out of North Korean and Iranian behavior both as a candidate and as president. In the case of North Korea, his complaining was fact-based. In the case of Iran, it was more wishful thinking. Nevertheless, making life difficult for certain organizations and individuals in both countries is consistent with his speechifying. His base of supporters will be over the moon with joy.

On the other hand, Mr. Trump has made playing nice with Russia a cornerstone of what passes for a foreign policy these days. Whether that is due to a grand strategic insight or due to the likelihood that the Trump Organization has been laundering Russian money for decades is neither here nor there. Mr. Trump would like to relax, even eliminate, the current sanctions on Russia, especially the Magnitsky Act. Repeal of this particular legislation is at the top of Vladimir Putin's to-do list.

So, when the bill(s) get to the Oval Office, the president will have to decide just what matters most. Does he sign the bill, make his base happy about standing up to Iran and North Korea, but at the same time do harm to his efforts at improving ties with Russia? Or does he veto the bill, upset his base over Iran and North Korea, and temporarily make Vladimir Putin happy? The happiness will be temporary because with majorities of the magnitude seen here, Congress will most assuredly over-ride the veto.

And having his veto over-ridden this early in his presidency by a Republican-controlled Congress will set the chatterati off. They will claim it makes the president look weak, that the Republican Party is a circular firing squad these days, that no one is running America's foreign policy. That, in turn, will set the president off, and a tweet-storm from his Twitter account will cause his image even greater damage.

Moreover, the one solution that would normally have a chance at working, splitting the Russian sanctions off into a separate bill that could be vetoed independently of the Iranian or North Korean sanctions, is not possible. Mr. Trump is already seen as a puppet of the Russians in some quarters (this journal believes he is covering up unsavory financial matters involving Russian billionaires). If he were to insist on a bill that allowed him to put through sanctions on Iran while preventing more sanctions on Russia, he would merely give further evidence that supports his detractors' case.

Congress has increased the stakes as well by adding language to the Russian-Iranian sanctions bill that would require Congressional approval before he could relax the sanctions the law would impose. If he fights the bill on the grounds that Congress is over-stepping its authority, there would be cover for him to veto it, yet he still is effectively keeping added sanctions away from Russia. His detractors will call it a pretext rather than a reason.

The least bad option is probably to sign the bill, and work behind the scenes to implement the sanctions against Russia in as relaxed and accommodating a way as bureaucrats can find. And then, when things have settled down, find a way to quietly repeal the sanctions as part of a bigger deal with Russia over, say, Syria. One doesn't want to wager much that Mr. Trump will choose the least bad option.

© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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