Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

North Korea Blinks in Missile Crisis with US

North Korea's President Kim Jong Un had threatened to launch four missiles at the American Territory of Guam today. It is an hour or so shy of August 16 in Guam's time zone, three hours away in Pyongyang. There will be no missile attack as North Korea is claiming President Kim has decided to hold off to see what the Americans do. It may persuade some that he is giving peace a chance, but the fact is for all his sabre-rattling he isn't about to take his sword from its scabbard. Eyeball to eyeball with the US, he will always blink.

The official KCNA news service reported, President Kim "said that if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity, testing the self-restraint of the DPRK [North Korea's official name is the Democratic People's Republic of Korea], the latter will make an important decision as it already declared."

South of the 38th Parallel, South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who was elected in part thanks to a softer policy on the North, said, "Military action on the Korean peninsula can only be decided by South Korea and no one else can decide to take military action without the consent of South Korea." It would appear he meant he had a veto over anything the Americans might do. President Kim surely doesn't need President Moon's permission to start a war. Mr. Moon added, "The government, putting everything on the line, will block war by all means."

This journal doesn't believe war is likely so long as no one miscalculates the intentions of the other interested parties. Mr. Kim doesn't want a war with the Americans because he would lose. He can either go on being a dictator for decades and enjoy that life to the fullest, or he can die young and miss out on all of that. He'll opt to die of old age.

The Americans don't want a North Korean ICBM with a U235 or Pu239 warhead pointed at them. However, the Russians held (and still hold) America hostage, and both sides have lived to tell the tale. Once this is a fair accompli, one expects lots of yelling and screaming from Mr. Trump, but containment and an economic war of attrition is the likely outcome. America has no interest in a war on the peninsula that results in the destruction of South Korea's economy even if the good guys win.

As for China, it is playing a delicate balancing game, but the US and the DPRK aren't destined to go to war, so China just might manage to keep its policy intact. The Chinese don't want a pro-US united Korea on their border, nor do they want a million North Korean refugees streaming across that same border. Mr. Kim may be a son of a bitch, but he suits China's needs well enough.

What might cause an armed conflict is if one side misunderstands the actions of the other. Were North Korea, for example, to launch four missiles (the number of missiles with which they threatened Guam) straight up, the US might see the launch from its spy satellites, presume it was the attack on Guam and respond with force.

None of this is to say that good times lie ahead. Mr. Kim clearly feels less secure in his position at despot than his dad or grandpa. He's vicious and ruthless, to be sure, but he isn't 30 yet, and the respect for elders in East Asian societies predates the DPRK by a few millenia. He needs to win the support of his generals; being a member of the lucky sperm club only takes him so far. When North Korea can hit the US with a nuclear weapon, he will be safer and more secure because he will have accomplished something. Maybe then, one can think about lessened tensions. But probably not, after all, one is talking about North Korea.

© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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