Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Republicans Lose in Alabama Either Way
Voters in Alabama are voting for their new US Senator today to replace Jefferson Beauregard Sessions, who left the post to become Attorney-General. The race should be a foregone conclusion with a victory for the Republican candidate in this highly conservative state. However, the GOP has nominated Judge Roy Moore, a man twice removed from the state judicial bench for failing to follow the law and who has been credibly accused of child molestation charges and sexual impropriety with teenagers. The polls are all over the place, but the result will be close. Whether they win or lose in this race, though, the Republicans will have lost on a national scale regardless of the outcome.
Presuming he loses to Democrat Doug Jones, Roy Moore's defeat will also be a defeat for others in the party. President Trump has endorsed the candidate and has recorded robo-calls for him. If Judge Moore loses, it will tarnish the president's image, having already backed another candidate in the primary, Luther Strange. The loss of the seat would reduce the Republican majority in the Senate to 51-49, making Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's job of guiding legislation through the chamber even harder. Finally, were Judge Moore to lose, it would give the Establishment GOP an argument against the Trump-Bannon nationalist wing of the party, that of hard-right unelectability. This will prolong the Republican civil war.
However, if Judge Moore wins, the Republican Party will still lose. Having a US Senator with the kind of allegations against him that Judge Moore has will give the Democrats a huge advantage in fund-raising and in appealing to those independent and moderate voters who decide general elections. This will resonate most powerfully with the white suburban women who failed to vote for Hillary Clinton despite expectations. As a Senator, Judge Moore becomes the poster-boy for intolerant, ranting know-nothing-ism.
In addition, Judge Moore is gaff-prone. The man has a political style that may get him a majority in Alabama, but it comes across as politically tone-deaf in other parts of the country. He has the president's habit of trying and failing to be sincere. Moreover, he has the same foot-in-mouth disease. He will be the gift that keeps on giving for late-night comedians and Democratic strategists.
Above all, his win will give the nationalist wing of the party a good argument for continuing the fight against the Establishment Wing, electability. If Judge Moore can win in Alabama, the thought goes, similar candidates can win in other heavily conservative states. Candidates like Moore could carry places like Mississippi and South Carolina, but one questions how well they would do in more diverse, yet conservative leaning, states like Utah, Florida or Montana. The loss of the center is almost certain for such candidates.
This is a significant battle in the Republican intra-party conflict, but it is not the final engagement between the Establishment and the Nationalists. That may well run on for years, surely until the 2020 nomination is sewn up. Until then, the party will find itself losing in the long term regardless of short-term outcomes.
© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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