Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
CSU Loses Absolute Majority in Bavaria
The Christian Social Union has run the German lander of Bavaria with an absolute majority in the regional assembly since 1966, except for a coalition between the CSU and the Free Democrats from 2008-2013. They lost their majority in yesterday's election, although they remain the largest party in the assembly. The pro-immigration Greens are second, a collection of independents called the Free Voters came third, and the proto-fascist Alternativ fur Deutschland is fourth, entering the regional legislature for the first time. The traditional left-wing Social Democrats lagged in fifth. This is less a rejection of the conservative values and ideas of the CSU, and its Christian Democrats who operate in the rest of Germany, but instead, it is a rejection of traditional political structures in favor of new parties.
The CSU is likely to remain in power, but quite how it cobbles together a coalition is hard to say. Working with the Greens is difficult from a policy standpoint, and working with the AfD is politically dangerous. No one wants to be seen in coalition with the ideological grandchildren of the Nazis. An alliance with the Free Voters is possible, even plausible, but such a diverse bloc may be too diverse to deliver the needed votes with any consistency. This leaves the SDP, which forms a coalition with the CDU/CSU bloc in the federal parliament. It's reasonable, but it will have the appearance of the establishment circling the wagons to keep the newcomers out.
The fact of the matter is that almost half of Bavaria's voters opted for the anti-establishment parties or candidates, but they did not opt for a particular ideology. The AfD and the Greens are about as far apart as possible, but they polled 30% combined. Moreover, the Free Voters represent not just a new party but also a non-party. Because German electoral law requires a party to win at least 5% of the vote before it can take a seat in a legislature, the Free Voters are candidates who band together to surpass that threshold, but they don't necessarily have any policies in common. They have been active in local elections, but in the lander legislature, this showing is a big deal. Party discipline is assumed in European democracies, but the Free Voters will have little if any.
The voters have a desire for something new and different, but they cannot be any more specific than that. The protest vote has become decisive. They are not entirely sure what they want, but they know what they don't want, which is the same parties that have run Germany since 1949 and the founding of the Bundesrepublik. It is the same mentality that has some voters in the US voting for Donald Trump after voting for Barack Obama four years earlier.
This poses a massive problem for the established parties. How does one offer anything new to the electorate when the electorate wants something other than the organization making the offer? The voters seem to care less about policy and more about who is providing it. It used to be one voted SDP or CDU/CSU. The Free Democrats used to be the vehicle for protest votes, but they may not even reach the 5% threshold. They are seen as the establishment's outsiders, not genuine outsiders.
Until the next federal election in three years' time, Germany will have fractured political power, and that is difficult to forge into a government that can achieve much. That failure to achieve will merely underscore in the minds of the voters that the bums need to be thrown out. The vicious cycle is likely to deepen and accelerate between now and then. Indeed, it might go well past that.
© Copyright 2018 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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