Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Commons Rejects May's Brexit Deal 2-1
The May government's agreement with the EU on London's relationship with Brussels after the UK leaves the EU went down to defeat in the House of Commons yesterday. Not only did the government lose, it lost by the largest margin in history. The ayes were 202, and the nays 432. The Labour Party tabled a motion of no confidence immediately, and the next week in British politics is going to be a nightmare.
Under normal circumstances, a government losing on such an important vote would result in a visit to the Queen, the resignation of the government and a general election. With the Fixed Term Parliament Act in place and a certain stubbornness in the Tory Party about giving up when they lose, times are not normal. Instead, there will be a vote of no confidence which is likely to fail, the May government will return with a new set of ideas, and the whole process begins again. The only thing different is that there is much less time to get matters settled one way or another.
The vote of no confidence is something Labour have been considering for some time and merely wanted the right moment to strike. With more than 100 Conservative MPs voting against the government and with the Democratic Unionist Party, which has kept the government in office on a confidence and supply basis, abandoning Ms. May, one would think there is enough anger or disappointment to bring down the government. There isn't. The rebels and the DUP will return to the fold and keep Ms. May in office.
Nor would a successful vote of no confidence help the situation. There would be 14 days for a new government to be formed and to win a confidence vote. Only if that fails to happen would there be a general election. Even if the campaign were held to 30 days, the clock would continue ticking down toe Brexit Day, and the new PM would kiss hands at Buckingham Palace with just 28 days to go. It is impossible to see how a new deal, or even a mildly amended deal, could be agreed and ratified in time.
The chronology is against an orderly departure. No-deal Brexit is now the most likely outcome. No Brexit at all remains a pipe dream of many, but without the leadership of the Tory Party backing it, it is implausible. The chance of another referendum, which would cut the Gordian Knot, is equally beyond the pale of probability. The Conservatives maintain that the people spoke in 2016, and they don't need to speak again in 2019.
The one way the British political leadership can save the situation that might actually work is to delay Brexit Day itself. March 29, 2019, is the current day of departure, but the UK and EU have agreed to an extension period that lasts until the end of 2020. During that time, the official EU Brexit website says, the EU will treat the UK as if it were a Member State, with the exception of participation in the EU institutions and governance structures." Stopping the clock by moving Brexit Day would result in a ms bajor conniption from the Brexiteers. One would hear phrases like "betrayal of democracy" and so on.
Therefore, the British should use the transition period to find a way to negotiate another deal. The PM should assemble an all-party, pro-Brexit commission to discern whether there is a position that would command a majority of MPs. This journal believes there is not such a position right now, but once Brexit becomes a reality, a certain flexibility may be found among MPs who prefer Remaining.
However, what the current debate is missing is the European side. The British are still, years after voting to leave, arguing among themselves over what they want. In Brussels, there is a sense of despair and ambivalance. The BBC quoted one EU diplomat as saying, "MPs keep saying what they don't want. They reject this deal. They reject no deal. They need to decide now what it is they will agree to." Another has said, "We're not going to hold a special summit or anything. There's nothing we Europeans can do today or tomorrow that will solve this. London has to come up with solutions, then we have to decide if we can accept them."
The key issue for Britain is just how it is going to function outside the EU. Instead, the House is debating whether a PM who should resign in shame should continue in office. And she likely will still be PM on Brexit Day.
© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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