Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Labour-Tory Brexit Talks Fail
The minority Conservative government in Britain has been trying desperately to find a way out of the European Union since the referendum three years ago put Britain on the road out. Just about every path tried has failed, and there is not a majority in the House of Commons for anything. Prime Minister May's hopes of passing anything shrank to the point where she opened up talks with the opposition Labour Party to find enough common ground to cobble together a majority. After a month of chattering at each other, the two sides have called it quits. Brexit is rapidly running out of road.
Ms. May blamed the Labourites for the collapse of the talks. The lack of a "common position" on a second referendum within Labour made the talks "difficult." The lack of a common position about most Brexit matters within the Tory party didn't help.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn wrote in a letter to Ms. May, "I believe the talks between us about finding a compromise agreement on leaving the European Union have now gone as far as they can." He added "The issue [is] that the government has not fundamentally shifted its view and the divisions in the Conservative Party mean the government is negotiating with no authority and no ability that I can see to actually deliver anything." And yet Labour doesn't seem to have any success in opposing the Tories.
The House of Commons will vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill the week of June 3. It is expected to go down to defeat. Ms. May has agreed to set a time table for her resignation and election of a successor win or lose.
So, one expects the WAB to fail, Ms. May to resign, and a new PM will be selected just in time for the summer recess. A new PM will not have a majority in the House, nor will a majority for any Brexit plan suddenly emerge. The summer recess will run until September 10, when the House sits for three days ahead of party conference season. On October 12, Commons will be in session full-time, and that is just 19 days away from the current Brexit deadline.
The EU has, thus far, seemed adamant that there won't be an extension beyond Halloween. If there is no agreement on the future relationship between the UK and the EU, Brexit will have to happen without one. The alternative would be canceling Brexit entirely.
There is still time for a general election, and there is enough time for a second referendum. However, the Conservative leadership fight that will follow the defeat of the WAB will eat up valuable weeks.
Next week's European Parliamentary elections might offer a clue about the way forward. If the Brexit Party garners the most votes, takes a few seats, and in doing to, tops the Tories, pressure will increase to pass the WAB or to Brexit without a deal. If the Remain parties like the LibDems, SNP and Greens, do better, there is a possibility of a second referendum.
No matter what happens, Ms. May is going to cease being Prime Minister before July. Her time in office has been either a disappointment or a disaster depending on where one sits on Brexit. The Conservatives are governing with a minority because the country simply don't trust them in general, and Ms. May in particular.
Her successor will have almost no time time accomplish anything before the October 31 deadline. If that Tory offers another referendum or a general election, Europe might be persuaded to extend the deadline while one of those occurs, but one wouldn't expect a delay past December 31. Britain has wasted months, and the government is running out of road. The future is not certain, but it certain to be awful.
© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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