Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Johnson Takes First Tory Leadership Ballot, Four Out
The Conservative Parliamentary Party held its first ballot in the process of choosing a new party leader and prime minister yesterday. To no one's surprise, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson topped the poll with 114 votes, with current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt second with 43. Three candidates failed to win enough votes to remain in the race (Mark Harper, Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey). Matt Hancock, the health secretary, got 20 votes (enough to move on), but he has chosen to withdraw. Based on this outcome, the only question is can anyone stop Mr. Johnson? The likely answer is "no."
In the next round, a candidate must win 33 votes to remain in the race, and those votes will be cast on Tuesday. Based on the outcome of the first round, Rory Stewart, Sajid Javid and Dominic Raab will need to pick up votes from those eliminated. The troika of Mr. Johnson, Mr. Hunt and Environment Secretary Michael Gove seem safe bets to move on as each got more than 33 in the first round. Unless their support erodes, they will continue into the third ballot.
Before the candidates face the second ballot, they will engage in a debate on the BBC. Mr. Johnson proved the most reluctant to participate and for good reason. As the leader in the race, he has nothing to gain and everything to lose by debating the others. At the same time, not turning up would have been a mistake by giving his opponents extra time to bash him without a place at the table from which to mount a defense.
One expects the race to finally crystallize on Wednesday with the third ballot. By then, it should be a race among Messrs. Johnson, Gove and Hunt. Mr. Javid may not survive the second ballot, Mr. Stewart won't, and Mr. Raab could hold on for the third ballot but would be a distant fourth.
The process within the parliamentary party is not to select a leader outright, but to choose two candidates to put forward to the local Conservative Associations whose members will have from June 22 to July 22 to cast postal ballots. Those 160,000 electors will choose the next PM. That being the case, one is comfortable stating that Mr. Johnson will be on that ballot. The other candidate will be the not-Johnson choice, a significant portion of the party.
The keys to Number 10 are not necessarily going to go to Mr. Johnson. He is a toxic personality. Mohammed Amin is the chairman of the Conservative Muslim Forum has said he would resign from the party if Mr. Johnson were to lead it. On Radio 4's "Today" broadcast, Mr. Amin said, "I have been a Conservative Party member for over 36 years. We don't expect our politicians, our prime ministers, to be saints but we do require a basic level of morality and integrity. And of all of the candidates in the Conservative Party leadership election, Boris Johnson is the only one that I believe fails that test. And I'm not prepared to be a member of a party that chooses him as its leader." He also stated, "As far as I am concerned, [Mr Johnson] has insufficient concern about the nature of truth for me to ever be a member of a party that he leads."
The next PM may well face a no-confidence vote before he has been able to unpack his belongings at Downing Street. One honestly wonders if Mr. Johnson could win one. Failure would bring about a general election that, by rights, the Tories should lose. However, Labour has covered itself in whatever the opposite of glory is as the official opposition.
Between the counting of the postal ballots and the October 31 Brexit deadline, there is the summer recess for Parliament, the party conferences, and the possible general election. Simply put, there will be no time to address a managed departure from the EU. Crashing out or not leaving, however, are unacceptable to a majority in the House. As the sands run out, the possibility of Theresa May's deal with Brussels winning out may tick up as the only way to deliver Brexit and to deliver a small rather than large disaster.
© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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