Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Saudis Meddling in Lebanon May Clash with Iranian Ambitions
The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman [MbS among Saudis] is making quick use of his recently acquired power. Having arrested many fellow princes and ministers on corruption charges, he appears to be well settled in at home. However, he is not resting on his laurels. He seems to have kidnapped and deposed the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad al Hariri, who was not tough enough on Hezbollah, which is Iran’s proxy in that nation.
Mr. Hariri arrived in Saudi Arabia back on November 4. Rather than being met on the tarmac by a delegation of dignitaries, he was met by large men with little time for diplomacy. He was hustled off the plane, and his cell phone was taken. Held incommunicado for a few hours, he was then put before TV cameras and read out a message announcing his resignation. None of this could have happened without the blessing of MbS.
The President of Lebanon, Michel Aoun, has rejected the resignation of Mr. Hariri, and he has demanded that the PM return. Mr. Hariri denies that he is being detained. “I am free in the kingdom and if I wanted to travel tomorrow, I could travel,” he has said. That may be true, but one doubts it. And if it is true, why does he not wish to travel?
MbS is already engaged in a proxy war with Iran in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition fighting there is his idea and his reputation is tied up with it. Iran has successfully used Hezbollah to expand its influence, and MbS clearly wants to beat Iran in the struggle to be top dog in the Middle East. Iran, of course, is not going to take this lying down.
Hezbollah is well-entrenched in Lebanon both as a paramilitary and as a political entity. Indeed, it forms part of the Hariri cabinet. Getting Hezbollah and Iran to cease their actions in Lebanon is not going to be easy. It may well be impossible. Yet, MbS is determined to try.
In so doing, he is threatening to re-ignite the Lebanese Civil War, which raged for years and achieved nothing. This may well bring Israel into armed conflict with Hezbollah, and that is not going to help anybody. Meanwhile, the Saudis have the backing of the Trump administration, and that may give MbS a sense of security that is unwarranted. One doubts whether the American people are willing to send troops to defend Saudi Arabia should push come to shove.
Some have called MbS a reformer, but he is better described as a pragmatists. Reform is necessary for Saudi Arabia to maintain its position as leader of Sunni Islam, and therefore, reform will happen. Women may now drive cars, and a massive high-tech city called NEOM will be built from scratch, where law and taxes will be light and where robots outnumber people. For now, he may do as he wishes.
Yet Iran figures in his future in another way. The late Shah of Iran tried to modernize his nation, over the objections of the clergy and landowning class. He enjoyed a reasonable amount of success for a while, but in the end, his drive for modernity came acrupper thanks to Ayatollah Khomeini and conservative theologians. MbS faces a similar problem. There are a great many reactionary preachers in Saudi Arabia and the Sunni region who have benefited from the current set up in the kingdom. Offend enough of them badly enough, and the House of Saud is not guaranteed a future.
© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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