Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Koreas' Warming Ties May Leave US Behind
The leaders of North and South Korea have had a successful summit in Pyongyang, agreeing to various ways of improving their mutual relations. The North went so far as to offer destroying both the Tongchang-ri missile engine test site and the Yongbyon nuclear site. These events would happen if the US were to take "reciprocal" measures. Precisely what those are is uncertain. What is certain is that the growing friendliness between Seoul and Pyongyang may leave Washington out in the cold, to the detriment of US interests.
According to CNN, the leaders agreed to:
- Cease all hostile acts against each other
- Submit a joint bid to host the 2032 Summer Olympics.
- Create rail and road links between North and South within the next year.
- Stop military drills aimed at each other along the Military Demarcation Line, which divides the two countries, by November 1.
- Remove 11 guard posts in the demilitarized zone by the end of the year.
- Normalize the Kaesong Industrial complex and Kumgang tourism project as soon as the conditions allow.
It's an impressive and positive list, strong enough for South Korea's President Moon to say, "The era of no war has started. Today the North and South decided to remove all threats that can cause war from the entire Korean peninsula."
That brings up the US troops in South Korea and the American military alliance with the South. At some stage, it is clear that the North Koreans will complain that the imperialist Yankees are an obstacle to Korean unity, and what is the South going to do about it? It may not be soon, but it will happen.
To forestall an answer from Seoul that would undermine the current stability of the peninsula, Washington must sit down with the North and find a way to make some real progress, not the empty grandiose words so enthralling to President Trump.
"The outcome is a big win for Moon Jae-in, who has managed to extract a series of positive headlines from Kim Jong-un related to denuclearisation," Ankit Panda, editor of The Diplomat, told the BBC. "None of the concessions are truly costly to Kim and won't help move North Korea toward short-term disarmament, but provide a further basis for confidence building on which US-North Korea talks can move forward."
So, the next move is Mr. Trump's. He will have to find a way to give the North something it wants without giving away the store. With his background in real estate negotiations, the desire for a deal at any price may prove his undoing, or his urge to be the tough guy may prevent him from offering anything at all. One hopes to be pleasantly surprised, but one expects to be disappointed.
© Copyright 2018 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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