Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
May Postpones Brexit Vote in Commons
The day before the House of Commons was to vote on the agreement Prime Minister Theresa May made with the EU on the terms of Britain's departure from the EU, the PM has decided to postpone the vote, perhaps until January. That is a clear sign that she does not have sufficient support to get the legislation approving it passed, and that puts at risk everything she has worked to achieve. Many MPs are upset about a great many things, and so, there is no quick fix. Time is running out, and Britain looks increasingly like it will crash out of the EU, or better, not leave at all.
The PM's main problem is the idea of the Irish backstop, a method of avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic in the event a deal addressing the problem cannot be made. The sad thing is that no one wants such a border. However, the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland supports Mrs. May's minority government on a confidence and supply basis. The DUP refuses to accept rules for Northern Ireland that differ in any way from the rest of the UK. This is economically shortsighted as Ulster could be a special economic zone, much like the Guangzhou province of the PRC (which boomed for years).
This means that the only way to avoid a border to prevent smuggling is to have the entire UK maintain the same rules as the EU. That is not a problem, except that Brexit is completely and entirely about having different rules.
Complicating the matter is the view of the European Union. European President Juncker made it clear, "We will not renegotiate -- our position has therefore not changed and as far as we are concerned the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union on 29 March, 2019." She can not have a border. She cannot have the same rules as the EU. She cannot renegotiate. The circle cannot be squared.
There are a few options, none of which is particularly palatable. Ms. May can hold the vote later and hope the market meltdown that is currently headed toward Britain gets everyone's attention such that they vote for it. That's unlikely. A variation on this exists. She can go ahead and have the vote later, lose it and hold another vote afterwards when the economic bottom falls out.
Another approach would be to put the matter before the people. Having demanded the government negotiate Brexit, the people ought to be allowed to approve or reject the terms, or so the argument goes. This journal believes any second referendum should have two questions. First, should the UK leave the EU on the terms negotiated by the government. Second, if the deal is rejected, should the UK leave anyway or Remain. The second question makes the first more likely to fail, but this journal doesn't like the deal nor the idea of Brexit.
Of course, a general election is possible as well. At present, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act requires a 2/3 majority to dissolve parliament, but passage of a no-confidence vote results in a general election as well if a new government is not empowered after 14 days. The SNP has said that if Labour, as the official opposition, tables a motion of no-confidence, the SNP would vote for it. That would be 292 in favor, with a majority of 320 needed (Sinn Fein MPs do not vote as they do not recognize British authority in Ulster, and the Speaker does not vote except in the case of a tie). If the DUP back it, the anti-Tory move still needs 18 votes. The 11 Liberal Democrats, 4 Plaid Cymru, and 9 independents plus the Green Party MP may well back a no-confidence move. And of course, there are Tories who might peel away.
But then what? Another minority Tory government? A Labour government with a month before Brexit day trying to find its feet?
The European Court of Justice has formally ruled, "when a Member State has notified the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the European Union, as the UK has done, that Member State is free to revoke unilaterally that notification. That possibility exists for as long as a withdrawal agreement concluded between the EU and that Member State has not entered into force or, if no such agreement has been concluded, for as long as the two-year period from the date of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU, and any possible extension, has not expired."
In other words, Remain remains an option.
© Copyright 2018 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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