Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
May Faces Brexit Defeat in Commons
The minority Conservative government led by Prime Minister Theresa May faces a huge defeat in the House in a few hours over its Brexit deal. While she has had some success in talking Tory rebels into backing her deal, threatening no Brexit at all, the fact is that there is not majority in the House on any version of Brexit. When she loses the vote around 8 pm Greenwich Mean Time, the British political scene will redefine chaotic. With 73 days to go before the UK leaves the EU, the only options that remain after the vote will offer a choice between truly horrific and simply dreadful.
Speaker John Bercow has selected four amendments that the House will entertain. His selection is clearly an attempt to give most of the political factions a chance to influence the main motion of approving the deal. If any of these passes, the Speaker will move the main motion immediately.
The first is Labour's Amendment A, which rejects the deal on the grounds that it fails Labour's six tests. Chief among these was a "strong single market deal" that was always disingenuous because the UK was, by definition, leaving the single market. It also rejects leaving without a deal, calling for the government to "pursue every option" to find a third way out.
If that fails, the Speaker will move onto Amendment K, which the SNP and Plaid Cymru have tabled. It rejects leaving on the terms Ms. May has negotiated because that is contrary to the wishes of the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. It suggests delaying Brexit Day until a better deal is negotiated. In all fairness, this is a more pragmatic proposal than Labour's, but because it is offered by the Celtic nationalists, one doesn't expect much support from Labour.
Should that not receive a majority, the Speaker will call Amendment B which Tory MP Sir Edward Leigh has drafted. It addresses the Irish backstop, which has caused endless grief for the government. In essence, his amendment says the backstop is temporary and that if it isn't ended by December 31, 2021, then the Withdrawal Treaty would terminate the next morning, January 1, 2022.
The last amendment is Amendment F on the order paper. John Baron, another Tory MP, suggests that the UK should be able to terminate the Irish backstop without the EU agreeing to it. This addresses directly the concern of many Brexiteers that Brussels will simply never agree to ending the backstop, which effectively keeps the UK under EU rules without any rights to influence them.
Usually, such amendments would be designed to bring more MPs into the government's lobby at division time. Brexit is a different matter. While the Liberals, SNP and Plaid Cymru are unified in opposing Brexit, Labour and the Tories are split in a variety of ways. An amendment that brings a few extra votes to the government risks losing votes that were in the government's camp before the amendment.
The May government exists because the Democratic Unionist Party that represents constituencies in Northern Ireland has backed it on a confidence and supply basis. Despite the fact that the voters of Ulster opposed Brexit in the referendum, the DUP has favored it all along. They believe that Brexit offers them a way to tie the province more closely to London and rely less on Dublin. While no one wants a hard border between Ulster and the Irish Republic, the DUP would like the benefits of being on the other side of the cartographic border.
Ms. May has been unable to bring DUP MPs onboard with her deal. As this is written, DUP leader in Westminster Nigel Dobbs has said, "From our point of view, the thing that would have been essential to get this matter through the House with our support wasn't even asked for -- which would have been the changes that will eliminate the trap of the backstop."
When the dust settles, nothing beyond the dust will be settled. Brexit looms. There is no deal with the EU but limited appetite for a no-deal Brexit. There is probably no better option to come. The trouble all along has not been that the EU was unprepared and unwilling to come to an accommodation. The trouble has been, since the referendum was announced, that the Conservative politicians have not articulated what they wanted, only what they opposed.
© Copyright 2018 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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