What Comes Next?

17 January 2019

 

Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

May Survives No-Confidence Motion by 19 Votes

 

The Labour Party at last tabled a no-confidence motion against the most incompetent British government in living memory, the minority Tory government led by Theresa May. The most incompetent official opposition since Michael Foote ran the Labour Party failed to unseat the Conservatives by 19 votes. Theresa May will be Prime Minister of the UK on Brexit Day, and the conditions of that exit remain up to her. The trouble seems to be that she has no idea what to do.

Shortly after the results of the vote were announced, Ms. May met with the leaders of the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru. The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn declined to meet with her until she rules out a no-deal Brexit. The PM is committed to Brexit whether there is a deal or not. Perhaps, these talks should have happened 2 years ago.

Now that the Westminster drama is over, the question remains what can be done? Ideally, Brexit would be canceled and everyone could pretend this horror show never happened. Unfortunately, that is not possible. There is a basic democratic principle at stake. The majority of the British people for better or worse voted for Brexit. Either that has to be undone, or Brexit must occur. The only legitimate way to undo a 2016 referendum is with a 2019 referendum.

Unfortunately, that isn't going to happen either. The PM is against it because it would be undemocratic in her mind. Apparently, asking the people what they want in one year prevents asking them in another. If that were so, the 1973 referendum on joining Europe ought to remain paramount, invalidating the 2016 vote. The logic is flawed, but no one said politics had to be logical.

A rerun of the 2016 Leave or Remain vote might result in a victory for the Remain camp, and Brexit could be canceled. All would be well. But Leave might win again, and if that were to occur, things would be about as bad as they are now with less time to do something about them. A new referendum, a choice between no deal and Ms. May's deal might resolve the matter, but once again, the PM is loathe to ask the people what they want. That is how the world got into this mess.

Consulting all the people is slow and expensive. As an alternative, some have proposed a Citizens' Assembly. Ireland has used this approach to address ethical and political dilemmas such as abortion, where 99 citizens chosen at random learn the issue and advise the politicians about what the people want. The Guardian newspaper backs this idea, and so does Compass, a left-wing campaign group. Of course, the British are now in a one-woman, one-vote era. Ms. May is the woman, and she has the vote. This is a non-starter for her.

An alternative would be a parliamentary commission, a similar advisory body but drawn from senior leaders of the Leave and Remain campaigns. It's a bit late for this approach.

The same is true of a national unity government. There is probably a majority in the House for Brexit in the broadest sense. However, the cleavages between hard and soft and in-between Brexit has kept them apart. Labour and Tory Brexiteers are united only on the question of Brexit. Putting together a functioning government beyond the Brexit question is unlikely.

What is likely to happen is more of the same. The May government is not going to get anything done in the remaining 10 weeks of British membership in the EU. There will probably not be a deal on March 29 when the UK leaves. April will be a time of emergency diplomacy between the UK and EU as the two sides grapple with the mess that Brexit has become. The weeks that follow will be painful on both sides of the Channel. Truly difficult and potentially lethal problems will come to light, and the beginnings of a new arrangement will evolve. It will take a great many years this way, but it appears that this is the only way forward.

The May government has been a failure in delivering on Brexit, but the opposition to the May government has been a bigger failure. Two days ago, the government suffered the greatest defeat in the history of Parliament on a major issue. Yesterday, that same government survived a no-confidence vote. One cannot understand how that happens except with an opposition that is completely clueless. 

Perhaps, Mr. Corbyn should resign to allow Labour to find someone who could actually retain some of the votes the government won back between Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. 

If every nation has the leadership it deserves, one must ask for what horrific sin are the British people suffering.

© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.


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