Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Australia's Liberal-National Coalition Wins Surpise Victory
The Liberal-National Coalition, which is effectively a single right-of-centre party, was supposed to lose Saturday's general election according to the polls. The Labor Party had an ambitious program to address the economy, climate change and a number of solid would-be cabinet members. The Liberal-National Coalition had Scott Morrison, the survivor of a nasty leadership coup a while back. ScoMo, as he is known, managed to win an outright majority (76 of 150 seats, with two seats still to be called). How he did is it a lesson for other democratic leaders.
Australia is very much a 50-50 nation. Matt Wade writing in The Age noted, "In 2010, Labor got 50.12 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote and fell short of an outright majority. In 2016, the Coalition won 50.36 per cent and retained government by a single seat." With most of the votes counted, it's safe to say the Coalition is going to record a 51% result.
The second thing to note about Australia's election is the political zeitgeist. Australians, like other people in developed economies, are not feeling as secure as they believe they once were. When offered a sweeping grand vision of a changed and brighter future, they did not bite. They listened to ScoMo attack Labor's Bill Shorten, a man who might have been a fine PM but was not the brightest star in the antipodean political constellation. Only 6% of Labor voters ticked the Labor box because Mr. Shorten would be PM. Back when Kevin Rudd won in 2007, over 20% of the Labor voters were won over by Mr. Rudd.
The lesson here is that when people are worried about the future they cling to the familiar. They want change, to be sure, but they want little bits and pieces of change. They don't want a revolution. Much as Trumpism and Brexit have shown, they want to go back to the comfortable way things used to be (or how they imagine them to have been).
There are also two things about Australia that are unique, and that may be grounds to discount some of the preceding. First, voting in mandatory. More than 90% of voters cast a ballot. The Australian participation rate in their democracy is very different from America's, Britain's and Canada's. There are few stay-at-homes. So, the idea that there are people who would have voted if they felt it mattered does not apply to Oz. Australian parties can not delude themselves in the same way Democrats in the UK or Labour in the UK can.
The other factor is the idea of a "fair go." ScoMo appealed to Australians saying, "I believe in a fair go for those who have a go, and what that means is part of the promise that we all keep as Australians is that we make a contribution and don't seek to take one," the prime minister said. "When all Australians do that, that's when we get the fair go mentality and culture that has made our country strong today. So under our policies, if you're having a go you'll get a go. And that involves an obligation on all of us to be able to bring what we have to the table."
Part of the Australian national identity is what Americans might call "rugged individualism." What one gets out of life depends on what puts into it. Those who laze about on the dole are not as worthy as those who get up a dawn, work their fingers to the bone, and who do right by society. This resonates in all developed societies, to be sure, but in Australia, it's fundamental to who the Aussies think they are. In a 50-50 country, that's enough to make it 51-49.
Mr. Shorten has resigned as leader of the Labor Party, which is about as shocked by its loss as Democrats in America were by theirs in 2016. Meanwhile, Mr. Morrison has three years now to implement his "fair go" for Australians.
It seems pocketbook issues will defeat grand visions these days. The opposition parties of the developed world have been warned.
© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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