11 June 2019

Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Ten Tories Stand for Number 10
 

The nominations for leadership of the Conservative Party are closed. Ten worthies have met the requirements to appear on the ballot. On a per capita basis, that is more than the couple dozen Democrats running to replace Donald Trump, and like the American Democrats, most of these are no-hopers who appear to be running for reasons of ego rather than wisdom. The front-runner is Boris Johnson, and as this journal counts votes, he will be difficult to defeat. The leadership is his to lose, and the competition is not awe inspiring.

The biggest news in all of this is the admission by Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary, that he used cocaine while a journalist in the 1990s. Under normal circumstances, that might be excused owing to the length of time that has passed and possibly youthful indiscretion (he would have been about 30, so that's questionable).

However, as the Guardian noted, "he looked rattled as he was challenged over whether it was right for him to have overseen a policy of teachers getting kicked out of their profession for taking class A drugs while he was education secretary and to have presided over a prison system as justice secretary in which people could be sentenced to up to seven years for the crime of possession." His hypocrisy is disqualifying.

Mr. Gove has been the bete-noire of Boris Johnson's prime ministerial ambitions for a long time. When David Cameron quit, Michael Gove was Mr. Johnson's campaign manager. Until the last minute, that is, when he put himself forward, and took much of Mr. Johnson's parliamentary support with it. The result was Prime Minister Theresa May, This time around, Mr. Gove is gone one way or another, and he won't be able to harm Mr. Johnson.

The other important point to note is that Sam Gyimah, who had the universities and scientific research portfolio, has withdrawn. He was the only candidate who backed a second referendum. He withdrew citing insufficient support. One can safely conclude, therefore, that there will not be a second referendum under the next Tory PM barring a complete sea-change in political attitudes.

The Conservative Parliamentary Party will convene on Thursday for the first round of voting. Each candidate is hoping to get at least 17 votes from his or her fellow MPs which is required to move onto the next round. If all get 17 or more, the candidate with the fewest backers is left off the next ballot.

Before the second ballot, Channel 4 will broadcast a candidates debate on June 16, which should be an unwieldy affair given the number of candidates. One expects a half dozen will make it out of the first round of voting, so it will be a three-ring circus of sound bites.

The second ballot is set for June 18, and a candidate must get 33 votes or more to survive. It is quite possible that the half dozen expected to reach the second round can reach that threshold, in which case the candidate with the fewest votes will be out. Given that there are 330 Conservative members of the House, the second round might not be terribly useful in winnowing out candidates, The same is true of the third ballot on June 19, and the fourth and fifth on June 20. If the party is evenly divided, there could mathematically be four or five viable candidates after June 20.

By June 22, there should be just two names left, and those will be sent to local Conservative associations where members will vote. Those votes will be counted at Conservative Party HQ on July 22, about 100 days before the Brexit deadline of October 31.

Once named, the new PM is likely to face a no-confidence motion from Labour. If the divisions among Tories are deep enough, and if the Democratic Unionists decide they don't want to prop up the new government, the no-confidence motion could pass. That would mean a general election right ahead of the deadline. And who knows who will win?

The next few months remind one of a Greek tragedy. Something awful is going to happen, and no one can stop it.

© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.


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