Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
No-Deal Brexit Will Mean Shortages, Job Losses
The British government is in a snit right now because someone leaked the details of preparations for Operation Yellowhammer, the code name for dealing with a No-Deal Brexit. Among the concerns was a return of a hard border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland, a "three-month meltdown" at the country's ports, and thousands of jobs lost due to the closure of two oil refineries. Medicines and fresh produce could be in short supply with prices rising. The Johnson government is claiming the document represents old thinking, dating from when ministers were being obstructive and that the situation has changed. This is nonsense. A No-Deal Brexit will be a disaster.
A senior source in Whitehall stated to the Sunday Times, "This is not Project Fear, this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios -- not the worst case." The disruptions envisioned are severe, but entirely realistic. The ports will be swamped with delays, and the current system of distribution for both imports and exports to the EU will seize up. That is a direct result of going from a relatively open system to a more closely guarded one. Even if all the planning in the world were done and unlimited funds were available, human beings will need to adjust to the new arrangements, and that takes time.
A Number 10 spokesman suggested that the Johnson government had done things the May government had not. "This document is from when ministers were blocking what needed to be done to get ready to leave and the funds were not available. It has been deliberately leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence discussions with EU leaders. Those obstructing preparation are no longer in government, £2bn of extra funding has already been made available and Whitehall has been stood up to actually do the work through the daily ministerial meetings. The entire posture of government has changed."
However the posture of the government may have changed, the business community is still not sure what is going on. The Freight Transport Association [FTA], for instance, only learned of possible fuel shortages now. Logically, therefore, there has been no planning yet to address this contingency because it was not going to be necessary. "This is the first time the industry is learning of any threat to fuel supplies -- a particularly worrying situation, as this would affect the movement of goods across the country, not just to and from Europe, and could put jobs at risk throughout the sector which keeps Britain trading," a spokeswoman for the FTA said.
The situation is as it has been for months. Either the deal Theresa May negotiated is approved, or Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal at all, or Brexit gets canceled. So long as Mr. Johnson is PM, the latter is not going to happen. Now, he is trying to get the EU to re-open the negotiations to avoid the Irish backstop. Ireland won't accept it, so he is just wasting time. When he finally realizes that the EU isn't going to blink, it will probably be too late to do anything useful.
Lord Kerslake, former head of the home civil service and now a cross-bench peer, said it best on BBC Radio 4's Broadcasting House, "[the leaked document] lays bare the scale of the risks we are facing with a no-deal Brexit in almost every area. These risks are completely insane for this country to be taking and we have to explore every avenue to avoid them."
© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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